All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

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E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!

by Jason Calacanis
November 4th 2020
Hello, everybody. Welcome. We are live at the all in headquarters, and the all in podcast is now live. We have 63 people watching already and bear with us while we get the best. He's on the line. I'll be doing my introductions in just a moment after I tweet this. Um But it is an eventful night, and we had to start early because, uh, it's looking like this could be another shocker, and I am not being facetious here. I am not happy about this, obviously, but Trump looks like he's been underestimated again. This is not a blowout. Um, we are going live early. Um, this could be a shocker, folks. Okay, okay. So

with me early on, the pod is regular. David Freedberg David, you're watching this early action. And what's your early reaction to what we're seeing? Um, you know, Trump's moved. Well, there's nothing definitive yet, but he's moved, uh, in the results, and he's moving markets. We're seeing forex markets show a sharp indication, um, that Trump has a real shot at winning here. Treasury markets and as Phil Helmet will share with us betting markets as well. So it is more of a nail biter. Um, than game seven of the Warriors. Cavs. So here we get a hell of a nail. There's a hell of a nail biter, guys. And I'm just gonna say this three UK markets had it first hit. He was 5 to 2. You could you could get trumpet five to to to and after one. Then it hit 5

to 4, and I thought that was quite crazy. You're watching CNN. You're watching these networks, and they're saying, Oh, my God. Biden's winning this. No, they're not even in the right neighborhood. I'll never watching Network again on election night. And now the market from five minutes ago. £368 million wagered. £368 million. Trump is now a 3 to 10 favorite. Okay, So for people fell who are not gamblers. $3000. You bet. $3. No, no, Jason, you have to understand if you bet $13 okay? You don't get 13 back, you only get 10 back. Okay? Now, if you wanna bet biden it 7 to 4. So if I bet $70.5. About $40. I could get $70 back on Biden. Now the shocker is right. Around 6 28 PM, the betting odds the markets would have been invited favor for three straight months. I've been live

posting them on my Twitter all day. The worst I saw was was Trump was, was Biden was minus a dollar 25 still a big favorite to win, and then boom. And you know, there are people in my house that are actually crying. You know, I'm very much more in the middle of this thing. But all of a sudden, Trump, all of a sudden it was 5 to 4. Then it was even. And then all of a sudden, Trump was nearly a 2 to 1 favorite. I'm getting live information from my friends right now. I'm seeing that that it's Ah, it's a little bit lower on some of these sites. I saw 2 67. That's for a $200 bat. So he's a pretty big favorite. I saw the lowest I've seen is to 17. But Jason, if you're watching the a lot odds and I put some stuff on my Twitter, it's amazing how it went from you. No, minus a dollar 70 You know, all the way down minus 30. Then it came all the way up to minus a dollar 70. This is crazy. And and I've seen this movie before

, in 2016, actually. Okay, so we all know that you need 270 electoral votes to win and that there were a couple of states that were critical for Trump toe win on it. Seems like those states that Trump was critical toe win. Um, he has now won. So let's bring in David Sacks. Uh, David, we just turned on the livestream. And, boy, is this a turn of events that I don't think any of us except for maybe you. But you were very pessimistic on the last, maybe three or four. All in podcasts You're watching These results come in. The betting markets have totally flipped to trump. What are you seeing? And what can we expect tonight? What are you looking for? Yeah, I mean, it's looking just like 2016. Um I mean, you're right that I was looking at the polls in the last few pods that we've done, and there was no way to say anything other than you know, Trump was the

, uh was the underdog. But at the same time, I still thought that Trump had a really good shot because I was watching both candidates on YouTube all the time. They both were doing live events. I wasn't watching it with the commentary. I wasn't watching the clips. I was watching Trump do these rallies. I was watching Biden do these parking lot events, and I would see Trump do 45 events a day flying from, um, tarmac to tarmac on Air Force One. Having these huge crowds, I saw him do this event and Butler, Pennsylvania, over the weekend. It looked to me like there was tens of thousands of people there. Andi, remember Trump saying a line like, you know, this doesn't seem like a second place crowd, and you know, it's one of those trump lines, but, you know, it did put in my mind this idea, you know, he's got a point. Um, whatever the polls say, we're seeing tens of thousands of people show up at these events who are fanatical. I mean, just fanatical for

Trump. And so you always have to think that he had a chance of pulling off an upset just like 2016. I will say what I said on our text earlier, Donald Trump eight. The covert virus and killed it with his body on. Then he stood in front of the White House and ripped his shirt off. And let us all know that he is our leader. He did not get elected. He claimed victory beginning in 2016. And he has not and will not let go since then. And I think it is that cult of personality that draws so many people in that air. Just, um, you know, feeling like they need change and they need leadership. And they don't need something from the old school. And he stood up and he showed us that this whole thing is it is a fake cove. It is a fake. Government is fake. The people are fake, The media's fake. I'm getting some late numbers. I'm getting some late numbers here. You guys, um, he's now minus a dollar 59

to win Pennsylvania, and they took every other number off the board. However, if you're a Biden person, Jason, uh, the number is only 2.17 right now. Eso Wow! The polls are pollsters were miles off on this, and this is just amazing. And it seems like from what we're hearing from the reporting is that the pollsters did not understand the Latin or I guess Latin X is a way to describe um ah, group of people who actually don't think exactly the same. I've always had a ah weird understanding of this terminal annex which seems to come from the woke left. But Cubans, Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, these are different countries. They're not all the same Venezuelans. Things is not a monoculture just because they all speak the same language and we're seeing something very different happened in Florida right now. We're male. Uh, Cubans maybe

are voting very differently than what pollsters expected best. Each mammoth is now fresh off a tight haircut, and he's here on the pod. Uh, we've got Bestie Philae's our first bestie guest, E of the night STP. How are you? Best TV show? Matthew and I. We we shouldn't talk about this. This is about politics. But you and I were just filming high stakes poker in Las Vegas on Friday night. It was great to see you, Bestie. Is there any indication you could give us? Besides, I mean, of course, there's a presidential election that is going to determine the future of humanity. But more importantly, how did you each do in the high stakes poker game? The biggest, the biggest. The biggest part of the night was around 400 K, maybe 500 k played between me and ER. Dio. Yeah, anyone. He did not win the head. Oh, my Lord. Jamal mean that one go to my good. And, uh, it was I think

it was beautifully, beautifully played. I think Doug Poke will definitely do a short video clip on it. I did a I did a very, very sneaky three bet pre flop, turn, check. Um, river over bluff and got him to call. Oh, my Lord. Ah, little set bomb. I'm guessing. But here we dio Jason, I can't wait. Uh, since I'm here to promote, promote, promote everything I promote you can Onley watch these episodes of high stakes poker. A lot of players favorite show. You can only watch him on the poker go app. They're coming out December 16th meets Jamaat Phil Ivey Tom Dwan, Ben Lamb. A lot of your your heroes can't wait. Can't wait. Thio and I have a subscription to that. All in. Um, I'm sorry, the poker go app. It's It's well worth it. David Sacks, you have one of your friends on the pod. Why don't you introduce one of your consulting friends and and we'll have him tee up What

We think the possible scenarios are and where we're at right now at this very moment. Yeah. 6. 57 in California. Eso Michael Newman works for me as a researcher and he's ah, is ah, political scientists like, yes, you could say And I've known him since college, and he's very, uh, steeped in these ah lot of these races. I don't know if he's Yeah, I have been obsessively following politics since the Reagan election of 1980 So I wasn't alive then. So I know. I'm afraid I'm I was only 10, but I was already ah, political obsessive. And as you can imagine, a real hit with the ladies as well. So tell us what? What are the key states we need to focus in on here and which one of them have enough reporting for us. Thio sort of put them in a column and then move on and understand the path to victory for Trump or Biden. Yes

, well, I mean, uh, depending upon which network or news organization you're following their either calling, calling a lot of states or they're being very conservative about their calls. I mean, NBC has still not called Florida for Trump, but there's really no path for Biden to win. That state s so you can put that safely in the Trump column. He has just taken the lead in North Carolina after trailing all night. We've got about 88% of the vote in now, and I suspect he's home free, as is the Republican incumbent Senator there. Can I Can I can I just Can I just ask a question? I mean, isn't it typically the case that the counts from the most populous urban areas come last and those tend to skew mawr Democrat than Republican? That sometimes happens. It depends on the state. Um, some states have their rural areas come in last. One of the things that has changed the vote in North Carolina is as the early vote came in as the in

person early vote and mail in ballots came in. The last counties that reported that early vote were the rural counties. That's why early on it looked very good for Biden. And now it looks like it's trending away from him by the second North Carolina, according to The New York Times and, according to, uh, CNN right now is favoring slightly Biden 49.7% to 49.1% for Trump with 84% e don't think that's I don't think that's quite current. I think they're up to about 88%. But again, yeah, it's it's very close. What's interesting is Biden had five potential states where he could have knocked Trump out Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. We don't know the way we don't yet. Florida's off the table. The others were still on the table, but none of them are trending Biden's direction at the present time. So he, uh, s so far

, Trump is, uh, is staying in the hand. As you poker players would would say. He's, uh, he's getting the cards. He needs to stay in the to stay in the game, but we still have the river to play in. The river would be, in this case, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Texas had an early lead for Biden, which was crazy to see. Right now, it's got Donald Trump at 50.3% Biden at 48.3%. So that's going to normalize. I I go back to this one very critical thing. The reason why Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania right now are Trump is because you count the But when the county is counted, you can pass the votes and you can report. And if you have 25,000 people in a county versus Allegheny County, which has, like, I don't know, hundreds of thousands or a million plus people, it just takes longer. Yes, no, I listen. I don't characterize Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania at all. I think one of the reasons why Michigan right now

look so red is because they're counting today's vote first. Ah, lot of these other states that, like Florida, that had the option because their legislature allows them to do this. They counted all that early vote in advance and they dumped it in one big pile, a soon as the polls closed in the various counties. So that's why you saw early on a blue mirage there. What you're seeing in a place like Michigan right now is probably a Red Mirage because it's it's today's vote, which was going to skew Trump, uh, because of the because of the way he presented it to his people. He Florida was the one state. Thank goodness for his sake that he encouraged people to vote early and by mail in the other states. He encourages people to vote today. So here's a Here's a stat in Pennsylvania, among the Secretary of State's reporting dashboard, they've counted on Lee 12% of the mail

in ballots, which is, and the total mail in ballots is 2.5 million. Yeah, um, which is huge, right? And they've only should be a majority of the boat, I would imagine. Yeah, and they've owned. And they've only counted 24% actually. Sorry. They've only Yeah, they've only counted Ah, handful of precincts at this point. Uh, a quarter of the precincts, right? Here's something I don't understand. So, Nick Carlson from Was it like business insider? He just tweeted, um minutes to go that North Carolina. Biden is ahead with 99% of the vote counted, and Biden has a less than 990.2% lead. But it's 9000 votes, but, I mean, that's that would be a huge problem for Trump. Lost North Carolina. Listen, I think a loss in any of those five states Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio or Texas

is probably by the way, guys, I just want to give a shout out to nothin who's listening here all the way from Sri Lanka. He's listening. He just texted me. Okay, so much. By the way, right now, the odds were 3 to 1 on the betting market. So I mean, obviously the networks, I realized they're completely useless. I stopped watching him a long time ago when they had Biden way ahead in Florida, and the odds were 10 to 1 against. Right now, if you want to bet Trump is a 3 to 1 favorite on, there's been billions of dollars bed in England, Australia all over the world. He's a 3 to 1 favorite. It looks like it's real to me, and just and just just to build your side of the case, uh, NASDAQ futures ripping s and P futures falling and the 10 and 30 year falling. Remember ripping thes air All Pro Trump trades and and the euro, the euro collapse, the euro dollar falling, falling sharply once the markets turn towards Trump. Well, here's what they're reacting to is Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Trump is all up big time now, but again, this this that lacks a very

basic understanding of how county reporting is happening in these highly populist, you know, or these sort of sort of this these, uh, by mortally distributed states where they have a bunch of suburban and rural vote that's fast account and the big places, for example. Like, you know, you're not going to see Milwaukee and Green Bay Report until probably close to midnight s. So the question is, why? Why are the betting markets so pro trump? Then what do they know that we don't know? I will say this. Let me say this, Jason E. I mean, if you're like you're talking about billions of dollars, right, and so all you have to do is design a system to figure out how to calculate votes earlier and make a couple $100 million. Okay, these are the smartest people in the world. There's hundreds of millions of dollars, billions of dollars at stake. They obviously do a 10 times better than any other site, then in the other network. So this information I mean, I give a friend of mine posted. Hey, I'm laying 2 to 1 on on Twitter on my other friend, about $400,000

to $800,000. And now it looks like a genius. Somebody knows something that we don't know. While Trump, just on Bovada Trump just moved to minus 600 just took Michigan. Unbelievable mind. Looks like it looks like he's ahead in Michigan, but again, we have to see Detroit and there's there's a bunch of places in Michigan. Let's let's let's be the North. So here's the North Carolina Secretary of state dashboard, and they're showing two thirds of the county. Then you can actually see by county when you go into their their dashboard. The, um you know, Jamaat. The larger counties air partially reported most of the smaller counties air fully reported, um, 63% total with, you know, Biden ahead by literally 1000 votes right now across 2.5 to 2 million to 2.5 to 1 million. Wow. But what percent reported is that I mean, it's 63%

of the counties have completely reported, and so the remaining counties. If you look at the reporting status, the remaining counties that are partially reported, there's a mix of rural and some of the urban counties you know, Durham's. In their partially reported eso, there is a mix. Durham should be a Biden County. The research triangle is, uh, upscale, well educated professionals that I think are the backbone of the Democrats, uh, coalition in a state like North Carolina. Now they have absentee votes that air counted, and they have so far counted 3.3 million absentee, one stop votes and a million votes by mail. But that's how many came in. It actually shows that only five Yeah, trump, you two thirds of the votes were post the link into the zoom chats. So, Nick and pull it up on the screen, please

. Um e need to get an understanding of something very basic here for the audience who's not degenerate gamblers are is there a chance here. Phil and Chamakh, gambling experts both that people had put early money on Biden and are now covering or hedging some of those bats. Is that a possibility? Here? Okay, Jason. Jason, the Linus minus a dollar minus 4. 10 on Pinnacle. Right now, Let me just double check that source. So what? What Phyllis saying Jason is like, Yes, there's going to be a bunch of essentially covering now that covering will swing the line. But I think what Phil is also saying is when the line moves this violently, literally. What we've seen in the last 35 minutes is both the equity markets, the currency markets and the betting markets flip 180 degrees from where there has been not just all day, but, frankly, where they had been, probably for the last few months

. That's what I was saying for three months straight. Right now, Biden has been a favorite anywhere between 3 to 1 favorite at one point, all the way to maybe 50% favorite. And all of a sudden today, the lowest I saw was a dollar 35 I was kind of shocked. And the next thing you know, boom trumps the 3 to 4 to one favorite. So and I'm looking at CNN and I'm looking at these networks and they're still they still abiding a hat. And I'm like, What is going on at that zoo? That's the next thing we need to take care of. Jamaat. There's a business for you is somehow we can deliver the right data on elections quickly. There you go. Sex. Yeah, Well, I think the betting markets know something we don't know because Trump is just, you know, if you look at, like, the livestream on Twitter, the New York Times or something, Trump just slightly took the lead in Ohio. But that's the state he's supposed to win in North Carolina. It looks like with over 99% reporting, it looks like he lost by 9000 votes. By the way, a 9000

vote margin would probably trigger an automatic recount of North Carolina. And there's like 100,000 absentee ballots there. I don't know if those have been counted yet. Okay, so let's let's pause for one second on this everybody. North Carolina is one of the four or five states Trump has to win in order to have a victory. Right? Michael, I absolutely agree with that. Hey, had to have those five Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio and Texas. Okay, so we have Florida. He's got now this four left, there's four left. George George is a very slow counting state. We really don't know all of Atlanta could be out for all we know. So we leave Georgia on the side. So now we got four states we can work with. North Carolina is in Biden's pocket by just a hair that could change. And it would trigger a recount, which would take days to weeks. Yes, another three states. Let's go through them systematically. One by one, Michael Ohio was the biggest surprise of the night when Biden built an early lead there, although

again a bit of a blue mirage. Based upon the fact that the mail in vote and the early vote came in so strong for the Democrats this year because they emphasized it. The Republicans kind of fought against it. Uh, Michael Michael, with 49% of the vote in Ohio, okay, he had Right now, Biden had a massive lead and yet about 400,000 vote lead would have to correct. And when you look at the betting odds, he was 5 to 1 underdog to win the state. So something doesn't add up there. And you could you could say, All right, some of that is all the early voting, one for Biden. We know that to be effect, but there's something else there. Okay, I'm just looking at the results for Ohio will stay on Ohio for one more moment and then we have another guest who just jumped on. Ohio is currently showing Donald Trump with two point rounding it up 2.4 million votes to 2.2 million, slightly rounding up for Joe Biden, 52% to 47% with 78% reporting

. Does that mean we feel comfortable with Trump winning Ohio? Unless all of Cleveland is outstanding, I would say that's a Trump State. Okay, we now have John Cohen online. John is a member of the Surveymonkey team. John, welcome to the all in pod. Can you hear us? Thank you so much. I I I'm sorry. I didn't hear what was going on. I don't know how much you've been disparaging, pollster so far way we're waiting for you. We're waiting to get here. Tell us, as we start what your prediction was earlier today. Well, we're very clear to say that we're doing measurements, not predictions. That said, the measurements that we're doing clearly pointed toe Biden advantages across the board. But we didn't have we so far. We have no surprises. You know, we had Florida had been Trump plus to basically all week going to dead even, um, you know, coming into election Day itself, we don't know where the final votes will

be. Most analysts think that it's in Trump's camp. It may end up there, but it's super close. We had Georgia close. We had North Carolina close. Although and North China have been closing, it has been a big Biden lead. It was down to under two points with the Senate, you know, kind of even closer than that in some of our data. So you know, so far, there's no obvious surprise here, like, Damn, the polls were really wrong. Certainly ours, you know, it is early, though we're not declaring victory on those. Obviously, there's a lot to watch but nothing really to surprise, you know, us. Give them the numbers so far. What about Ohio and Georgia? So we had Ohio pretty consistently in Trump's camp. We had him up four. So it's trending that way. Now. We had its closest to points for Trump. I mean, again, I haven't mentioned the word margin of air that's in my professional obligation and duty to mention it is around three points, I believe 2.5 in Ohio so close. But we always had it in Trump's camp again. Biden. That wasn't part of Biden's, you know, any of the past, a victory that the campaign was counting on so, you

know, no big deal. But we went from having, Ah, early night toe. Now we're sure for sure in for a really late night here, John, let me ask you that one of the most basic questions that I've had, which is what did we learn from 2016 and tell me, what exactly did people try to fix? Like, what was the thing that everybody got wrong and what changed? Well, the biggest thing that pulls fixed was how they adjust their polls by education. What we see in polling, no matter how they're conducted, whether online is we do a survey monkey or still on the telephone, which most media pollsters dio is. You get people who, with more formal education, to answer those surveys in far greater proportions than you do people with lower education. So the biggest thing you've got to do and we look, we always did it. So we weren't in the among the state pollsters who kind of failed, I think, you know, kind of negligently thio just by education at all. We always had to justify education, but we what we failed to notice in 2016 was there was an increasing gap

between those with postgraduate degrees and those of B s. They've always been both to pro Democratic group, but the gap in 2016 was abnormally large. A fixed to our polls, which I just point out, weren't you know, kind of were actually standouts in the in the Upper Midwest. In terms of showing it is a close race, not clear Clinton victories. We broke apart post grads and grads into two distinct categories and that released kind of about a point and a half of unforced air in our polling for 2016. So that's fixed. We've used it to good effect again. This time around, we weren't showing what all the other national polls were showing. We've had this between four and six point national lead again. We'll get quickly into the white. National results don't matter, but you all know that all too well. Everyone knows that all too well, But we've had it kind of more narrow. And that plays out in the States that I mentioned. We had Florida tied, not a 4.55 point five advantage elsewhere, you know, but we'll see how it plays out in the Midwest. We also had Wisconsin. What was our final margin there? I think it was, you know, kind of nine and 9.5 points. Not the 17

points that you saw from my former colleagues at The Washington Post ABC News. So we've always had it a little bit tighter, but again, it plays how it's gonna play out in these states, and so far no surprises. But the night is early, and I have ah, healthy dose of pulses, paranoia Jamaat. I don't know if that answer your question well enough. But that was the main thing people did. It's really helpful. But now take off your pollster measurer. You know, Chief Research Officer hat for a second and put on just the American hat. Um, what does it mean when you know, we had effectively a repudiation of the establishment in 2016, and despite everything that's happened over the last four years, we may be on the brink of another repudiation again if you you know where you're there to measure the pulse of what's going on but less in sort of measurement, speak and just mawr in just playing American English speak John what, like what's going on If this happens again, See, you're absolutely right. There's something major

I would also like to caveat it. We are looking once again at If Trump wins is because of the Electoral College, like he is going to lose the popular vote. There's still farm or Americans and American voters who voted today and, you know, kind of over the past several weeks. Who would prefer Joe Biden to be president? So again, we can't characterize with a broad brush the American voting population when this is about effectively. I hate to call it a quirk, but this is about our system of vote tallying and the president, you know, But to pull back your point about kind of there is something major here. The fact that many people you know some of us might be friends with can't understand why this isn't 100 to 0. Race failed to understand that the president's base isn't small. It is. You know, we've had it 44 to 46% approving of his job performance for many years now, Like he has a completely durable solid floor. He also has a high ceiling, right? So he was never gonna win the popular vote this time around. But he had a chance at that electoral, you know, squeaking out another

electoral college win because he's been so stable. You know, this is a president who, you know, kind of up trump now ahead and N c thank you for the chat window. So I think you're right that we need to understand, Maura, about what is the component tree of that 45% that they would support Trump when the other 55% or so dead set against him and see it is something really wrong with the country. So we still have a country. No. What have you guys done to the Understand the people that are voting for Trump Better because I think that they are protesting and their protest ing a lot. And I think that, you know, if we didn't listen, toe them 16. I think it's almost criminal to not listen to them in 2020. So what are they? What are they saying? What are they rejecting or what is it that they want? Because at the end of the day, you know, I think his incompetence can't really be debated. Competence versus incompetence. I think what we can debate is he's

a vessel, and in that I think that it's incredibly important. What's happening, irrespective of what happens today because we were supposed to walk into a landslide were not. As you said, we're going to be in a nail biter. What? What? What are they using him as a vessel to communicate to everybody else? That's a really good question. Some of that will depend on you know, a closer analysis of the surveys, ours where We talked to more than a million voters and the exit polls. They're being conducted by two separate organizations Day. But what's the word of storylines that come out of the election? You know, one of the things that were being reported early is there's a much tighter Hispanic vote in Florida than many early polls. You know, predicted. How will that play out as we start to get votes, you know, coming out in Texas, How is it being Arizona Arizona? Looking positively for Biden and Mark Kelly in the Senate, You know, in Arizona, is it is it really Hispanic votes that are driving some trump strength in these states? Or you can visit the obsession that the Muse media has had for the past four years around the kind of trump, middle aged, white male

voter with less than college education who has been displaced by, you know, technological and industrial trends over the past 20 years. I think it's gonna depend on what that voting coalition looks like for Trump, and it's more diverse than I think we've been focusing on for four. I think I think you're saying an incredibly important thing. I think that That was a ruse, and I've always thought that that was bullshit. It's not some undereducated rube that's running around voting for this guy. E think that their their people up and down the the age spectrum, the socioeconomic spectrum and this is what I mean by he has become a vessel for so many different messages. And I think we really have to start figuring out what the hell these messages actually mean. Because, um, if Biden loses to your point, maybe in Florida it's a repudiation of socialism. Okay, But in Pennsylvania is gonna be something else in Michigan is going to be something else in Ohio. It's going to be something else for him to keep winning, right? Um, and I just don't

think that there's a consistent idea and it's very dismissive to say that I'm not saying you are, but I'm saying you know that idea that it was a now out of work ex factory worker, you know, in rural Ohio that was protesting. This is going to be much bigger than that, because even if Biden wins the popular vote until we figure out how to rebound balance, the Electoral College, in a completely, you know, New way, Or just get rid of it all together. Um, we're gonna have to live with understanding how some folks in these extremely pivotal states are pushing back. Are they pushing back on political correctness? You know, that's one thing that I've always thought. I think that there's a huge vote here against, um, yeah, culture cancel culture. So that stuff Absolutely, absolutely one culture and and lockdowns, I think those are the under reported lockdowns air the I think, the biggest one of the biggest driver. No, go ahead, John. Go ahead, John, say one of the components here that we have to pay a lot of issues gender

, right, kind of any of the storyline for a long time. And when you think about, you know, kind of Republican Democrat politics is that, you know, we talked about black voters in Hispanic voters talking about them as if they're monoliths. What we have seen consistently over the course of the year is that Trump does extreme much better among black men and Hispanic men than he does among black women and Latinos. And that is just kind of like, you know, whereas black women are 95 5 nears 20% among black men. It blends into the What was the 90 10 we look? But these air measurements, these air measurements I don't think they're telling you the wise of anything. And, um, I think for the wise you have to go a lot deeper. I mean, first of all, let's let's talk about the lock down issue. Could we just pull up that tweet, Nick? I mean, so this is what I said back in May. This was like months ago, before the election even hit, you know, which is. If the woke left insists on permanent lockdowns, Trump will have an issue that supersedes the incompetence of covert response

. Because I think you know, we all we all agree on that. Which is whether our lives and livelihoods belonged to politicians to meet her out in dribs and drabs as they see fit. And this was back when Ellen was being shut out of this factory in Fremont. And then there was this hairdresser named Shelly Luther in Texas, who was basically, um, put on trial for opening up her hair salon, and the judge wanted her toe to grovel and beg for forgiveness. And this was the beginning of the rebellion over lockdowns. And it was so obvious back then that lockdowns weren't gonna fly. They weren't sustainable. They were too politically unpopular. Um, they weren't gonna work. And And by the way, if it was something because of the left, agreed with, like, you know, BLM rally or something like that, then you were allowed to do it. You know, it was that whole standard around, um, you know, doing things that were essential. And so, you know, this insistence on lockdowns, even after

the public had really repudiated them, I think was a major issue for for Trump. And it was crazy to me that Biden was still insisting on lockdowns, you know? Still, I mean, that is his official position. I don't think it's the only reason why he's in trouble right now, but I think it's a big one. I think if he if Trump reaches the blue wall again of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, lockdowns is the biggest reason why, because those air three states that had extensive and still have extensive lockdowns hurts. It hurts people out here. I'll read you a tweet. I won't name who it's from. It's from, Ah, farmer in, um in the Corn Belt. Who's well followed on Twitter. Believe it or not, there's a whole ag Twitter community, and he says, Well, it's the day. Does this country turned down the road to be like Venezuela? Or do we continue on the road of capitalism? And, um, he's had this acute, um, feeling that he's kind of vocalized on Twitter for months now on how painful

the lock lockdowns have been on him and his family, his business and on the community. And it just feels like overreach to a lot of people that the recognition that you know the left might be using to justify the decision is just not there, that the impact the near term impact that folks are feeling is what's there. And that's driving a lot of behavior right now, boys, all markets air now up. Everything is green. Dow futures S and P 500 futures master futures, oil is up, gold is down. And come on, there were some guys that made some heavy bets against the dollar going into this thinking we were gonna have massive inflation with Biden policy coming up and some big fund managers that went really big on shorting the dollar this last week, Um, in the dollars up right now, dollars every, by the way we should. We should make sure at some point tonight to talk about these very important Senate race is because it's not just Trump versus Biden. And there's also a bunch of Senate race Hickenlooper, one in Colorado and number one in Colorado. But there have been

some. You know, some of the Republicans who looked to be in big trouble, like Lindsey Graham have have pulled it out and have one. And, um, so it's looking like the Senate is still very much in play, I would say as big a favorite as Biden Waas, the Senate shifting from Republican to Democrat when I say that was considered as equally big a favorite, and that that may not happen now, so we should make sure to talk about that at some point. North Carolina right now is 49.8% to 49% for Biden, 2.6 million versus 2.58 Ohio is at 2.4 to 2.2 51 52% of 47%. Trump is beating Biden. I have a question for John Cho and John. Um, Let's go back, Thio. Sort of your understanding as you've been measuring different trends. Have you measured, um, people's sympathy towards lockdowns on a state by state level

? And then second question is, have you measured people's sympathy to cancel culture at a state by state level? And by the way, you're on mute. So if you want to just take yourself off. Yeah, thank you. We have not done anything on canceled culture. We've done a lot on the coronavirus. We've been tracking that, actually in three countries since mid February, and we have a state by state. Look, and what's interesting is we asked, the question like this is primarily an economic issue or primary health issue, and those two have been running neck and neck. But health, you kind of more People on average, say it's a health issue than an economic one. Trump, with Trump supporters overwhelming, say the crisis is one that's financial, not health related. So there's always been that, but it's been like a 45 55 gap there, so we've been measuring a state by state. But there's a solid core of people gets to David's point about why, what are they focused on? What is the what is affecting them and their, you know, pocketbooks. It is the, you know, lockdowns and the kind of clamping down. And what is economic crisis, not a healthcare one, even

though that's what we all say, that they should follow e mean there was There was a There was a fantastic line that the Democrats coined, which essentially said something to the tune sacks IPU. You'll tell me if I got this wrong, but it was socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for the for the rest of us is essentially sort of their grab bag phrase for for this election cycle and sort of to frame a lot of policies. But when you have in thes states again, if we say this cuts along socioeconomic lines but then maybe bleeds into, um college and even, you know, graduate level educated folks, is there a vote here for rugged individualism and just leave me the fuck alone? There certainly could be. I wanna go back to what David said about measuring versus the why? Because I mentioned gender to point out a big difference that we're seeing across racial groups across the levels of education. But I'm, you know, we're pulling every day. So you guys have the right. Why question

, You know, send it to me. You know, since Xander we'll ask it. You know, we pulled 9000 people today on, you know, kind of their willingness to accept the results. And so we'll be putting that out tomorrow. We have a We'll have an exit poll running every day from here on thio. Certainly till we get a result. So you have the question you wanna ask send along, We'll get you the date at the state level. All right, John, we very branch appreciate you coming on the pod, and we will be checking. Surveymonkey is amazing data as we go, I'm going to switch now and just John. John. John. Thank you. And Zander, Thanks for doing for. Thanks, John. Thank you. And we'll have some more. Bestie guest is coming up. Some fan favorites from the Twitter and the poker group. I just want to point out right now. That is very interesting to see that Fox has Biden at 129 electoral votes and Trump at 109 and some of the other networks have it much lower. How did the networks make these

decisions off when to call? Ah state? Because it's too early, according to many to call Florida. But we're sitting here with a pretty clear understanding over Florida's that Does anybody have any thoughts on that of, Well, I think they're airing on the side of extreme caution because of the strange year that it is and the fact that there is all this. We had 100 over 100 million votes banked early through the mail or through early in person voting and nobody sure how many more mail ballots there. According to one side I looked at, there were still 27 million ballots outstanding. Now, some of those air redundant ballots like David's father in law, who got three ballots in the mail in Pennsylvania, and a lot of those are probably going in the trash. But there could be another 5 to 10 million of those to come in that air postmarked by today. Many states will accept them after the election as long as they're postmarked by Election Day, so they're probably being very, very careful that

they don't make a premature call. Of course, they all have PTSD about what happened in 2000, when they first prematurely called Florida for Al Gore, then prematurely called it for George W. Bush. And we spent the next 37 days trying to figure out what the hell happened in Florida. So I think they're gonna air on the side of extreme caution across the board. Although I feel like the margin in Florida at this point is and feel insurmountable now, right? Florida Florida's over. Florida's over. It's about now it's about It's about Ohio. By the way, the betting markets have just moved again. Big time. So Donald Trump was at minus 600. Now he's minus 2 50 on Ba Votto. Phil, what do you think about that? Yeah, I snapping back. I will say, Let me let me address what Jake Jason was talking about a few seconds ago and that's it, you know, basically, Florida. Even the New York Times had them at at 6 p.m. 95% to go to trumpet, 95% that was, The New York Times said. My wife and I looked it up and the betting

odds had at over 10 to 1. This was at 5 30. This was two hours ago, so I mean, I just think there's a huge inefficiency with with the way that I think it was over. A soon as the Miami Dade dump showed that Biden only one the early vote by nine points. I mean, the Hillary wanted by 29 in 2016 and she lost the state. So how much of this do we think has to do with tax policy? People in Florida are retiring. We have the AOC gang. We have Elizabeth Warren, Florida It's his beloved ST A s. So hometown favorite Mar a Lago. I get that. But you have so many retirees and we have this bifurcation of how taxes should work in the United States. So I just wanna open that up for the entire group to discuss of art. Are we seeing old people? Are we seeing people who are concerned about taxes because we have had a flight in the last couple of years of people

from high tax states toe low tax states. Is this about taxes? Do you think? Let's start with you, Friedberg. No one wants to pay taxes e like no one's gonna raise your hand. E. I mean, there's a moment where taxes don't matter. Well, that Romney, Romney, Romney was in favor or taxes, and he, you know, he didn't win any any of these elections, Like the way that the Trump looks like he's going to? I think that the traditional Republican messages message of taxes is sort of necessary, but not sufficient. Um, Trump obviously brought the whole set of issues that previous Republicans hadn't, um had abroad. And I think that e I think you have to look at 2016 separately from 2020. And so, starting with 2016, I think the big issue that trump that no Republican really had ever figured out except maybe

Pat Buchanan 20 years ago was the trade issue with China. You know, we forget that in the 19 seventies, when the great Chinese economic reformer Deng Xiaoping decided to open up the Chinese economy, the average Chinese was making $2 a day, and today their economy is roughly the size of the US. Now, you know what? What was the reason for that? Well, we had a bipartisan consensus in this country for 30 or 40 years on the part of both Clinton's and both Bushes that we should, you know, open them. We should welcome them with open arms. And we opened up our market to Chinese products. We brought him into the World Trade Organization, but But but But that was the start. That was the start of that was the killer app of the killer issue that Trump figure it out. And that's what shattered the blue firewall in those Rust Belt states. I mean, if you're gonna try and figure out going back 2016, why Trump won? You have to explain why he won. Michigan was a jobs. They took our jobs. But jobs in the manufacturing

jobs went out and the fentanyl came in. I mean, that's his argument, and that was a killer argument. I mean, and the proof is in the pudding. It's the proof is that he won these states that Hillary thought were so in the bag that she didn't even bother to campaign there. That was the big surprise. 2020 and the issue of taxes. Well, no, no. Let me explain what's going on in 2020 in my opinion, okay, This is not a partisan explanation, but I think that after the loss in 2016, look in business. We know that when you lose, when you make a mistake, you make a bad investment or the company does something wrong. You analyze what you did wrong, right? And then you figure out what changes to make. The Democrat Party did not do that. What do they do? They blame Facebook. They blame it on Russian interference. They never really analyze why they lost these Rust Belt states and made changes. Instead, what they began was this hysterical denunciation of Trump. You had this sort of

, You know, you sort of had this this sort of, um, you know, media culture. Uh, tech, uh, industrial complex, who decided that Trump was an illegitimate president and, you know, and so what they did is they went all in on impeachment. They went all in on this Russia stuff, and in the process, they created this enormous backlash. And I think that 2020 of 2016 was an economic repudiation of the elite. 2020 is a cultural repudiation of the elites. That is the big issue in 2020. Yeah, I I tend to I tend Thio. I'm sympathetic to David's view. I don't completely agree with all of it, but just to build on something you said, I don't think Jason, this has anything to do with taxes. Um, I think that in Florida, the if we if we end up really getting to the bottom of what happened I think there's a lot of people older people that probably lived through some version of McCarthyism and immigrants

who actually fled really shitty totalitarian countries who are like, You want to do what? Here, Um, and I think that there was a lot of people that basically are giving a very clear signal, which is I am a Democrat. But if you push me to the brink and talk about a socialized nanny state, I'm gonna vote Republican. So to David's point today of its point, if there was an economic repudiation of sort of traditional globalism in 2016 and Donald Trump ends up carrying the day and today, then it's a repudiation of sort of these cultural manifestos and norms that we're swinging to now the answer to that, maybe to say, change the Electoral College because it doesn't represent the majority or the plurality of Americans. I hear that. But in the same way that you know, we've said for years now that the Republicans will have to change to win the Electoral College or to change to win what's evolving in terms of

, um, people's perceptions on social policy, Uh, it may actually be the Democrats that also have to change if this doesn't swing hard back in Biden's favorite. So and she meth. When you when you make that statement, I think what's particularly prescient is the Democrats believed that because of the demographic shift from white Americans to people of color, Latinos, black Americans, that they were just going toe win all about this is this is the biggest thing that, if you were this is the problem with the stupidity of the establishment. Like if you take 1000 brown people and put us in a room, what I will tell you is just in case. Here's a fucking memo for all you white people out there were not all the goddamn saying, Okay? And if you put 1000 black people, here is the memo. Now for the Democratics and the Republicans, they're not all the same. You could take 1000 Hispanics, and it turns out they're not all the same. So maybe

, you know, you could take 1000 straight people. 1000 gay people there were not all the fucking same. So maybe what this means is that we've moved past color, and now ideology and social policy and economic and monetary and fiscal all of these things that the totality of how a rational, well developed person makes a decision, Maybe that's at hand. And before, if we historically only thought, you know, older white men and white women could do it. Maybe now it actually applies independent of color and gender. Yeah, I absolutely agree with that. And I would add to that that, uh, if Trump's victory in 2016 laid waste to the Republican establishment, if he wins again tonight, it will lay waste to the Democratic establishment and the theory of the case that they've had for 20 years. The sort of share a emerging Democratic majority case that they just had to sit back and let demography become destiny. And they could just, uh, graft and identity politics onto the

same neo liberal economic agenda they've been pushing since the late 19 eighties. And it would all just somehow magically produce, um, majority results in the country. They are gonna have to go back to the drawing board and I think, get more populist themselves and come up with some kind of version of politics. That is, isn't it more in the Bernie mold? It needs to be left but not woke. Isn't gonna be socialism. It probably is gonna be socialism. But it's not like if you lay waste to the center, you know, your left like I mean, that's basically what happened. 26 Republicans. And now, if you're saying the same is gonna happen with the Democrats this time around, you're gonna have a O. C. Running for president in four years. And she won't be the right Brando because she's woke. You meet a sheriff brown. You don't need a o. C. We need charismatic Democratic candidates. Somehow, Sherrod Brown keeps getting elected in in increasingly red Ohio as a old school, gravelly voiced Irish labor Democrat

. And somehow Bernie ignited a movement as a very old school, uh, gravelly voiced Jewish Democrat, neither of whom gave a damn about identity politics. Really, they were principally concerned with inequality and, uh, income redistribution. I wanna I don't want to see that happen, but I think that's the only path forward for the Democrats. Let's let me go to fell because Phil had, somebody wants to add there. And then we go to your tomato. Yeah, I want to say that we needed for the Democrats and they just needed that. I think they needed a very invented, a charismatic, powerful leader with a lot of charisma. I mean, I know that you know, the I was hanging out with one of the trump guys that was with him on the plane in the 2016 election. He said that you know, he outworked Hillary. There's no doubt that he outworked Biden. I mean, this guy's going to seven rallies a day showing up with a ton of energy, and he has, you know, like him or not, he has a lot of charisma. Also, I can't help but think that you're talking about real. Repeat, repeat E repudiating. Sorry, I'm getting that word

Wrong. Uh, to me, this is all about I think a lot of people are really scared of socialism. Okay? And I think it's just like even the young people that you know, even the young people, you know who say that they love it. They're looking at their path to the future and with and, you know, they they could still do great things. There's no doubt you can still be a 20 year old and and make a billion dollars for the time You're 30 or 40 and I think with socialism that goes away, I think that Look, I I think if Trump does win, um, I don't think what it means is that you need a person that's at the extreme left to win. I actually counter intuitively, we would say the three opposite, which is that you need just, um, or credible centered person. Now that may only be possible if the Democratic Party cleaves in two and the reality is the Republicans may actually quasi Cleveland

to independent of whether trump wins or not. Anyways, Onda we'll see, as David said, how some of these Senate seats break Because if that goes in a different direction you know, for example, if Trump wins, But we have, you know, a Democratic tie in the Senate, maybe that's not possible. Um, but I think that would say a lot around, um, the need for pragmatic but more youthful leadership. Okay, I want to go around the horn right now. What is your gut telling me who is going to win? Given what we know right now, everybody give it a thought. When you're ready, look into the camera and I will call on you. Michael, you're looking into the camera. Who's gonna win? If you had to pick one right now, Michael, give us your best cast with podcast a North Carolina, because that would tell me a lot. But I have increasingly think Trump is going to win. Okay, Phil, you're looking in the camera. Who do you think's gonna win? We've seen this movie before, except that Hillary was actually

5 to 1 favorite last time. And I watch these numbers go straight up, and now I'm watching the same thing. It seems like although I will say this. Uh, you know, Saks has been posting some stuff within our channel about the numbers popping up and down. I'm getting texts, and they are popping up and down, but still, the lowest I've seen is 2.5 to 1. I think Trump wins Trump wins. Who do you got? Sacks. Well, im gonna assume the betting markets know something. Um, I'm still a little bit unclear on North Carolina because I saw some tweets that had wanted by a few 1000 votes. But the the North Carolina website is showing, um, that actually Trump's ahead by, like, 70,000 votes. So, um, not sure who to believe on. Uh, Well, yeah. Look, I'm gonna I'm gonna go. I'm gonna I'm gonna go with with the bad markets are saying which is Trump. And, you know, I thought that he I thought he had a much better shot

than the polls were reflecting. And that's what it's looking like. What do you got, Freeburg? Donald Trump took on coronavirus for us. He killed it. He is our true leader. And he will prevail here in the United States of America tonight. At least, the betting markets are telling me and the Treasury markets and S and P futures. They're telling me that Donald Trump's gonna win. But I do think that the fact that this guy has never conceded defeat to anything in his life gives him a huge leg up. And he, you know, he is. He is like Steve Jobs. He warps reality, and he tells everyone I am going to win. I have killed coronavirus and it happens like a jet. I all right for a four so far picking Trump at exactly 7:45 p.m. California time. Chamot, Who do you have at this point? If you have to shove your chips all in, I still think the path

is, um, um uh I, um I think it's Biden and I have the advantage of some information, which is that they just announced breaking news. They aren't counting mail and votes in Philadelphia tonight and I am going with. So So we don't know, uh, Pennsylvania tonight. So if it's down to a few 1000 votes, Philly, I think is gonna break. I think you can count that as three or four 100,000 votes on it should be it should be 500,000. It should be 500,000. Well, then, 500,000 would carry the state for Joe Biden s 0 100,000 s. So I'm gonna I'm gonna stick with Biden here because I think that that Philadelphia vote count is crucial. It turns out that it may it may come down to Philly, Which, by the way, what an incredibly poignant place for the election to be won and lost

the city of underdogs. The city of Rocky. Uh, I think we can safely say that Biden is gonna win the popular vote, and it might be by four points, five points, which means that there is a discrepancy between the popular vote in Electoral College. We're going to hear a lot about that because, uh, I'm gonna go with because my heart is going to be so broken. Things Country picks this sociopath to run it for another four years after his absolute failure to content to do even the most modest things to battle coronavirus and the strife he has caused between Americans and his personal style is so heartbreaking to me that I don't know that I can believe in America. If they put this absolutely sociopathic person who has the least amount of character off any other human being

anybody on this call has ever met in their lives, it would be a complete, absolute, utter disgrace if he makes it into office for a second term. What existence? You're gonna respond to the entire American potential. Hold on. It's an existentially threat to the entire planet and humanity and democracy across the world. If this country puts that maniac into office again for four goddamn fucking more years, that's my personal feeling. I can't. I don't care what the statistics stay right now in my heart, I cannot give that man even a benefit of the doubt. If he wins garbage, if he wins is actually the first guy fired. Oh, I think you can count on it. And grouchy. And Christopher Wray, the FBI director and on right and increasingly, maybe Bill Bar to somehow Bill bar is not enough of a single thing. Shred of credibility or honor is gone

. I want I want to just say thio Jaeckel. I I really empathize with how you're feeling because, um, I have never as a person that has been a citizen of three countries. When I moved to America in 2000, I have never really I mean, you know, edge cases. Yeah, I felt some racism here, obviously. You know, I've but I've never felt so unwanted. And I remember 2016 for the first time in my life, feeling a level of insecurity I had never felt before because I was so afraid I didn't know what it meant for Donald Trump to be elected four years later. Um, you know, in in so many ways, uh, it's like two realms of a coin. You know, um, I leave my house and, uh, you could just see that there's just so much pain and divisiveness. I come back into my little world and things seem to be really great. And that's ah

really, really terrible feeling. Toe have Jason. So I know exactly what you're talking about. I wanted to tell you guys, um you know, I there was, like, a I've always been sort of like Okay, Brydon is gonna win. Biden is gonna win. Biden is gonna win. And then there's a weird thing that I did and you guys can see it in the FCC filings, but I gave a million bucks this year in the elections, but I gave 7. 50 to the Senate, and I gave to 52 by, and I didn't understand why I did it. Andi, I and I and I explained it to not as she's like. Why did you do it that way? And the best way that I could explain it is I I think that there are so much I don't know about what is driving the vote for president that I wanted to make sure that, you know, there are checks and balances and the best check and balance was to, you know, make sure that there was actually some Senate, um, check and balance on Biden. I mean, on Trump. So, you know, I'm

I'm gonna Jason, I'm going to accept the result. Um, I'm gonna try to figure out what the fuck. I don't know, because this is yet another layer of clearly don't know what the hell is going on. Um, but I can tell you, pretty assuredly guys, any result that's called tonight, I think is going to be, uh, incomplete because they're not gonna call Pennsylvania because they're not gonna call Philly. And so if there are, in fact, three. No, I think that the exact math is about 350,000 votes that show up in Philadelphia a gap of 350,000 votes that show up in Philly. Um, Biden will do what he needs to do. By the way, how many people live in Philly? Does anybody know how many registered voters Friedberg is it? Is it Is that on Billy? There looks to be supposed to be, like, half a million votes coming in there. And I think they've counted 100,000 on DSO e Think would be more than half a million. Usually the dims, uh, margin is about half a million. The

margin? Yeah, Philly is. I want to say our fifth or sixth largest market. It actually got it lifted on the A population that that link I sent you there. Nick on. Then if you click on click to view precincts reporting, you can see the right now. All right? It's tough to read. Yeah. I mean, we care about Allegheny. And then what else do we care about? You care about Philly and you care about those immediate suburbs outside of Philly, like Bucks County and Chester County. And there's four or five ring suburbs of Philly that used to be the centerpiece of country club Republicanism. There the counties that elected Arlen Specter to the Senate. But over time is the Republicans moved right. They moved more toward the Democrats. Michael, do you know why they're going to stop reporting mail in ballots tonight? Why would they do that? They just probably just to go home and sleep for a while before they pick it up. Tomorrow. Pennsylvania, unfortunately, and Michigan

as well are states that aren't allowed to start tabulating until all the polls are closed. That's why those states and the Sun Belt we were all looking for, uh, to be a early bellwether because that they can count 4.81 for This is unbelievable. Unbelievable. Well, what are we seeing here? What's unbelievable? So what? That means, Jason, is that, uh, in Philadelphia, there are 1706th precincts. Okay, off those, only 82 have reported the their ballot tallies. So you have 95% of the precincts in Philly, not reporting. If you take Michael's framework and say there's a swing of 500,000 votes, if it goes historically Democrat as it has in the past, you attack on 500,000 net new votes to, um, to bite him and, you know, and he, uh

he ekes out a win. Yeah, he goes blue. Probably in that scenario so that it becomes about. Remember, though, if Trump is holding, um, if he manages to hold Michigan, he could lose Pennsylvania. It wouldn't matter. Uh, he had a little bit of a margin. Had would he have 306 electoral votes last time? Uh, so if he holds everything you had minus Pennsylvania actually could lose Michigan. Tua's long as he carried Wisconsin. He has has had one of those two, but I think Wisconsin's difficult. So for all of our listeners and watchers in New Jersey, they legalized recreational pot. So go out and get yourself so Yeah, I'm gonna I just took four gummies after my little tirade there because Zannex weren't working s o. It's gonna get really strange for me in about an hour. Think

back. E mean, are we gonna crack a bottle of wine or what? Somebody e this'd is mostly coffee. But trust me, there's some Irish whiskey speaking to you, but it looks like I'm seeing reports of seven Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan. And unfortunately, all four of those states are gonna probably take at least a day. Arizona. Three days, I think to count. Um, maybe not this year. Because so much of the vote was early. Maybe it'll move faster, but they're notoriously slow counters. So settle in. It could be the weekend before we have a result. Okay, so let let me just drop this. If we don't know tonight, what is going toe happen over the next week? Well, we're gonna be We're gonna We're gonna need a lot of e. I mean, joking aside, e. I think everybody is going to be tense, J. I think I don't I don't think you're going to see a lot of

action one way or the other. I think that people, I think people in America are incredibly good people. I think that folks were just going to sit tight and hope that the folks whose job it is to do their job do their job. Um, I but I hope you're right. Yarmuth. But when I see a group of trucks surrounding people's cars, when I see people bringing guns on both sides, horrible people on both sides bringing guns, malicious style to specifically taunt each other when you see people getting shot in the street, chasing each other down over politics, this is something that has not happened in our lifetime. I mean, feels very old. So he kind of remembers the sixties. But for the rest of us under 68 we we have not witnessed Americans shooting each other in the street over politics. We have not witnessed people taking people out of their lives because of politics, and this is got Trump's fingerprints on it from

you mean since this summer? I mean, what about all the looting and rioting and protests? My point is when Trump got in office his character and his ability to trigger people, his ability to abuse people, his rhetoric put everybody on tilt. I'm not saying people looting stores are correct. What I'm saying is George Bush and Ronald Reagan, your heroes Bill Clinton, Obama, other people's heroes on this call there was there was a kindness in our differences. And when people conceded they conceded with grace and this individual, this horrible human being, you're putting it aside. Maybe Bush senior Waas. Look, I had a classiness and we had a mutual respect for each other that this deranged individual has removed from America. Eso

Jason, I'm not gonna defend. It's gonna happen in the next week because I'm not. I'm not defend each other leading up to this. I think the next week could be incredibly violent. Thank you for that. Now, look, Jason, I'm not gonna, like, disagree with you about any of that. The only thing I would add, though, is I do think that the media has been a co equal partner in sewing this chaos and divisiveness. Um, because, you know, we used tohave a media that thought its job was objectivity and neutrality and they ripped the umpire jersey off their back to go after this guy trump. And And why do you think they did money Well is very profitable. Trump Trump has made big money. Picking aside picking aside is is definitely more profitably get more subscribers. It might also be that they were absolutely suffering from Trump derangement syndrome from the fact that the person lies and that he wants to separate Children from their

parents at the border. Listen, yes, but they're supposed to. They have a job to do. They're supposed to be neutral. They're supposed to be a rational opposition to trump. Yeah, but exactly. But the. But the reason why Trump is doing well or better is because the opposition to him is increasingly irrational. And, um and people have voted for Trump Thio, basically giving the middle finger Thio Thio to the media, who, you know again, who are taking sides to these big tech sensors, you know, who don't want us to read things that are critical of trump. Um, you know, and so on down the line, I mean, I tweeted earlier. I mean, Rich Lowry had a great post explaining why if Trump was gonna win, Why, you know why? Why that would happen. And it's because he's the only middle finger available to these people on Uh, yeah, I don't disagree with you. He's not being no one's voting for Trump because of his integrity. Perceived integrity or integrity is the first time I for integrity in the same sentence

is Trump. Uh, your I'm agreeing with that point. I'm saying they're not voting for him because of that. They're not voting for him because of even a second term. They're voting for him in order to thio stop cultural forces they don't like. I have two things to say decidedly by the way. Two things to say. Um according Thio, the national political writer for The Philly Inquirer, Jonathan Tamari, His tweet of 7 35 PM said. Actually, it was even greater than we thought. There are still 2.2 million mail in ballots to be counted in P a, about 87% of the total. So if that's true, then we have that and Philly number one. The second thing I wanted to say is that if you actually look at the psalm counts right now in Pennsylvania, it's 371 591 votes that separate Trump. And by

eso ITT's you know, not that much guys, if 2.2 million votes are outstanding, yeah, but if it's if it's, too if it's let's see 60% it's to third kind of toe, one third slice 40% and it's not, let's say it comes in under that right. They probably counted a couple 100,000 already. I mean it. It's still pretty close. Um, really close. Let me let me ask tomorrow. Do you think that part of the reason we're seeing futures markets jump and the dollar jump and, um, on all the kind of obviously correlated assets moving the way they are is not necessarily because of a Trump win, but because the risk of a hung election seems to be coming out of the system right now that it seems like we're gonna have a much more clear outcome here than we thought we would. Florida is gonna be much more clear. That's always Ah, worry, State. Georgia is

gonna be clear. Obviously, we've still got Pennsylvania to kind of figure out here, but it seems like this is gonna break one way or another. Whereas a lot of folks were concerned we'd end up in the court fighting over hanging chads for months, and there was concern in the markets for months about that, do we think? No, I think that people were basically, um look, there is a reason to be long Biden in the markets, which is essentially that there's certain sectors of the economy that would have done very well. Um, those sectors of the economy were probably slightly different than Trump's under a trump regime. The reality is that corporate taxes, broadly speaking, are not going to go up. And so, you know, you can forecast higher earnings power for every stock, and so everything goes up. Um, I think what's happening right now is mawr of that relief trade of Maybe Trump was winning. So you could be kind of long everything blindly. Um, but, you know, the rial canary in the coal mine

was like if you looked at tech futures, tech futures was just going bonkers when they thought he was gonna win. Because they will probably disproportionately benefit of just having to pay no taxes because they pay no taxes today. Um, I s o so that's like kind of like what I what I think is happening on that side. I mean, Trump is very pro business. That's why the markets are ripping, right? E don't know. I mean, I feel like there was a real concern, like there was a non zero case here. Call it a 30% case that we were gonna get stuck for a few months with uncertainty and litigation about where this election was gonna go. I think I think it's fair to say that we we still we we could still have that, David, because we don't know if this goes to tomorrow. I think it's fair to say that that the game theory would tell you that tomorrow whoever loses Pennsylvania should ask for an immediate recount, right? Right. And I don't know what the problem they have to. I don't know what the process for that is. If whoever loses, um, Arizona should ask for an immediate recount, you know it. Whatever is possible under the law, I think

both Biden and Trump will exercise because, let's face it, this is the highest stakes possible. And so you would hate to, not if it's a margin of a few thousands of votes or tens of thousands of votes or even 100,000 votes, and you're allowed to do a recount. So if that's the case tomorrow morning, if we go to bed in another hour and a half, or if we finish this thing in another hour and there is no winner. Clear winner. I think markets will be back to sort of modestly risk off tomorrow. So, David, your thesis is that your thesis is clear. Winner. The markets rip. Either way, I think. Yeah. Clear winner. It's just like there was a lot of grinding expected here that was gonna cause a lot of, you know, trepidation and bouncing for a while that folks were concerned about. And if you feel like you're gonna have a clear election outcome or whether or not it gets litigated, if you feel clear about where it's gonna go because it's 55 45 you know, I'm sure they're gonna ask for a recount, Everybody Look, I think the market does not want those trump tax cuts repealed stocks

dis ripped after trump past those corporate tax cuts. So, um, if either trump wins or the Republicans hold onto the Senate, then that would be a reason for the market to rip. Doesn't mean it doesn't mean Trump has to win, but But if we have divided government gridlock between the two of you, the best, best possible scenario for the markets of Trump clearly wins. Okay? I think I think we have another best online. Is it the case? If we look at the Senate races, I don't know if anyone. I don't know if there's an easy way for us to pull this up, but we have to pull that up. David and I just wanna introduce our next bestie guest, Brad Gerstner's here. He, uh, bronze A multibillion dollar. I believe you would call it a hedge fund or a fund. Andi invest large. Lots of money in the American economy has ever see the best travel investor of all time. Jason, he's up there. But he certainly I would, I would guess, Brad

. With Cove it and airlines being grounded, this has not been the easiest year for you. So apologies. Now, Brad, Brad just made $10 billion on snowflake. He's fine. Uh, snowflake man. A Brad, uh, What's going on? Tell us what's going on. What do you know? Well, um heil um you know, it's a It's a fascinating night. I mean, all markets are ripping. We've had a massive reversal in the NASDAQ, a massive reversal in the bond market. Um, and it appears that you know, everybody is now who was worried about a Trump victory is now celebrating the Trump victory. Um, you know, one of the things people didn't understand about a clear Biden victory is the underlying concern in the bond market, right? If there's one thing to explain the expansion and multiples in the market this year is

the fact that rates have collapsed, right? So the 30 and 10 year went from, you know, ah, couple 100 basis points 20 months ago to basically 50 basis points in August of this year. We've seen them back up about 40% over the course of the last couple months. We see them backing up again tonight. The fact is, the market is seriously concerned about higher rates, which are the result of both a turbo charged economy. Too much stimulus on top of, you know, vaccines and prophylactics for cove it. And so you know, if you ask me, you know, we get all excited about the election. We get all excited about stimulus and tax policy. But the biggest elephant in the room is the Fed and rates. That's the 80 to 90% factor in the market. This year in Q four of 18. And so what? I'm what we're looking at. You know, we see the NASDAQ now up 350 bits, the futures up 350 bits

. So that says Trump's winning. We're not gonna break up the tech companies. We see the S and P starting to rise again, and we see the bond market falling saying that we're gonna have lower stimulus right in the market. Um, so you know, I've heard I've heard you talk about, you know, a clear victory certainly is better than not a clear victory, But, you know, notwithstanding our own fucking anxiety that we have to live with for the next four years in the short run, the market is clearly voting on, you know, is voting that trump is a palatable alternative. Um, and I would tell you to keep your eyes on rates. Brad, Brad, more than a great manager of money. You're actually a great human being, but you're also very wired into the Thames. Um, what are the Dem is getting wrong if they lose today? Well

, you know first, this is an upset already tonight. Let's call it this is a massive upset relative to expectations. The reversal in in the betting markets, the reversal in the stock market. You know, it's just earlier tonight it, you know, a well known organizer's house. On the Democratic side, there is despondency. This is a massive upset by Trump and once again a massive misread by the progressives and organizer's in the Democratic Party. You know, I had my 84 year old mother out here from Michigan over the weekend, and I'll tell you that ordinary people are made to be to feel bad about themselves by people living in these parts. The sanctimony that exists in urban areas, you know, and coastal elites

is just it's, you know, this is what we're seeing people vote against, right? The idea that you're going to close down the state of Michigan, not allow people to take their boats out on lakes. This is just, you know, not something that people are willing to tolerate. And I think more than anything else tonight you see a protest vote against sanctimony. Um, and this is just ordinary people saying that, you know, let us live. Our lives don't act so much smarter than us um, you know, And you know, I asked my 84 year old mother, You know who she voted for? She goes, Don't ask me who I voted for. That's none of your business, right? Like that's her way of telling me, right that you know that she's frustrated by how people in San Francisco make her feel living in Michigan E. I think that's where that's so smart. But David Sacks, before you talk, he's talking about you. Well

, no, look, I mean, I'm on Twitter and I echo change technology. Extremely. I mean, zoos, usually VCs Basically, they can't comprehend how somebody could have a political opinion that's different than them without that person literally being evil. I mean, I see this on Twitter over and over and over again. I'm like, really? Yeah. But this is like most of Silicon Valley, and I'm just like, Look, I mean, political opinions are like assholes. I mean, everyone's got one. And to think that yours is a lot prettier than everybody else's, and that's a bit ridiculous. Welcome, everybody. Thio, if you're just tuning in Well, the family, our just ended way. Brad. Brad, can I ask a question What? Um, like, what do we do? Yeah, you know, for me, listen a trump victory. The reality is we've learned to tolerate the anxiety over the last four years. And I think the market's

fully prepared to, uh, to manage its way through another four years of Trump. So I think that's you know, the reason we're seeing the futures react the way they are is it's a whole lot of nothing. I mean, the fact of the matter is just asking, How do we get off of our horses if we're on horses? Social elites? Well, I mean, this is going to take a complete rewiring, right? Like an abandonment of, you know? I mean, listen, you and I all know the exodus of people out of the Bay area right now, right? The fact of the matter is like pragmatic politics in the Democratic Party in the State of California vacated long ago. And you know, that is not a recipe for victory. It's not a recipe for victory at a national level. It's not a recipe for victory or tolerable victory at a state level. I think we're gonna have the single largest migration of economic uh, the single largest economic migration in the history of this country

. Three convergence of cove. It which allows people to work from anywhere and the risk of changing tax policies in states like California is going to cause mass economic migration. And I think that people are voting with their feet. They're voting with their wallets and their voting, you know, tonight in loud numbers, no matter where this where this comes down, this is an upset and a defeat for what Democrats expected to occur tonight. Do you Do you buy the framing, Brad, that this is about political correctness versus cancel culture? Yeah, I think that's I think that's a big part of it. I mean, you know, e think it comes out. It's it's amplified this year because of Cove it, but it comes down to something very simple, which I talked about. Um, you know, sometimes my sister likes to call me fancy pants, right? She's like, Oh, you fancy people live in San Francisco. You have all the answers, right? This is just the way that people in Indiana and Michigan

and Ohio they're made to feel every day, you know, they'll sit around watching Fox News thes They're not people who are racist, right? Jamaat, I heard you say earlier tonight the idea that Trump could pull what he's polling. And yet if you talk to all of our friends, they would have you believe that it was just a small band of, you know, racist pick up drivers carrying trump flags. I mean, they are. Their head is in the sand. Thesis is this is CEOs, you know, these air business owners, these air small business owners, these air farmers thes air old people, these air young people. I mean, the the millennials. You can't find a millennial in the state of Indiana and Michigan. Who supports Biden, right? Yeah, them e Just add to that point about what they think about people in San Francisco. Why shouldn't they think that when tech giants and the people who work at these big tech companies like Twitter and Facebook are asserting a right to censor articles

that they don't like and trying to assert a power over what the American people get to see and read? I mean, what a campaign issue that was for Trump in the last two weeks. I mean, whatever Twitter and Facebook thought they were doing toe protect or help the biting campaign. I mean, what a blunder. I mean, to give Trump the issue of censorship in the last two weeks and then the extraordinary thing. You know, we had that that congressional hearing in the Senate Commerce Committee that wrote a block about and the amazing thing is right on the heels of that. After that hearing, when we heard Jack Dorsey, You get that, you know, he just got grilled. He got ripped apart by the senators. Twitter double down on censorship. After that, there was an article by Jonathan Turley talking about. They start a whole new batch of accounts, and so, if anything, you know it'll be really interesting to see. I think you know, if you think back four years ago, Facebook was really, for whatever reason, became the scapegoat for the election. I think this time around it's gonna be Twitter because they have been so arrogant and their assertion of their right to center. You

can't walk. And if the Republicans hold onto the Senate, um, and or the presidency, I think you're going to see Jack Dorsey become the poster child for this new censorship that they're going to target. And the paradox Friedberg is that had they just let that New York Post story be tweeted because it's the New York Post, this is I mean, you may not like the New York Post. It may have a sorted past or reputation, but if that had been in New York Times story Washington Post story for an MSNBC story or a CNN story, it would not have been banned because it's a Rupert Murdoch New York Post story. And because it was salaciousness, somebody midlevel inside of Twitter decided to ban it. How much of that do you think plays into what we're seeing here tonight? Friedberg, which is This is not, uh, a small event

. This is a large group of people saying, I don't want anything to do with the Democratic Party anymore. I just think back to 2016, and you know, everyone has their own priorities, their own individual things that matter to them. And I remember in 2016 or leading up to it, I spent a lot of time in what we call kind of the Rust Belt in the farm belt and, um, if you'll remember, this was around the time of kind of the transgender bathroom. Um, you know, movement on this was felt very much like a coastal elite. Um, topic of interest. If you're in the Rust Belt in the farm belt, you're like, What the fuck? How is this Possibly something people are spending time on and arguing about and thinking about. And the disconnect between the priorities of the individuals that live in the vast part of the United States versus what they read about and hear about others treat as their priority. Um

I think is what partially helped support Trump getting elected in the first place because the things that matter to them that they felt were highly consequential, um, were completely unrelated and not being paid attention, Thio. While other folks, you know that had the money and the power in the big cities were focused on social matters and social issues and liberal decisions that they thought were inconsequential or shouldn't be a priority. And I think that fast forward to 2020 and it hasn't moved in the right direction. It's moved in the wrong direction where the disconnect is no longer a passive difference of priority. It's actually become an active interest moving against you. And so if you live in Corn Belt or the Rust Belt or last parts of rural America, um, your point. You're now not only feeling that there's this disconnect, but you're also feeling like this point of view is becoming overwhelming and stopping you from having a point of view. And I think whether your point of view is rooted, in fact or not, you could base that however

you want. Um, it just feels like it's becoming a silencing effect and not just kind of, ah, you know, ignoring the effect. And I think, let me let me just jump in here. I wanted to come back to this, but I wanted to just jump to something that bogey just tweeted Andrew Bogus. Thank you for this, Um, Detroit, Philadelphia and Milwaukee, all planning to post vote counts tomorrow as they work through absentee backlog. So if we look at the count's, that really could mean that fill, you know, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are either too close to call or not even yet ready to be called until tomorrow morning. E think Let's take a pause here and let's go through what the swing states are and where they stand at this very moment. Arizona is an important toss up state. Correct. Let's pull up Arizona, Nick. Let's all just take a moment to look at Arizona. We're gonna go through about six or seven of these states and just get our bearings right now because when we did the

quick survey about 45 minutes ago, four of us believed Trump was gonna win. Two of us believed one of us emotionally. One of us somewhat emotionally believed that's where we were at. Guys, get guys before you start this. Hold on. Before you start this, I just want to read a tweet, um, to two tweets number one from Nick Bilton. When do we get to vote on? When we fire Nate Silver and the second one Wait, the second one, which is even funnier. He's named Nate Silver because all his picks come in second place. O e. I mean, I I was tweeting you guys for the election. I mean, the Nate silver thing was a joke. He was first of all, he was saying that Biden was 90% favorite. And at the same time he said that if Trump won Pennsylvania, then he would become the favorite. But you knew that Trump was a few points of the margin of error in Pennsylvania. How can you

be 90% favorite, but some But Pennsylvania is sort of neck and neck. I mean, even his own internal projections weren't consistent with each other. E mean, here's Nate Silver, one of the best sports predictors in history. He's been an absolute genius. He stepped into politics, and now you guys are lashing. Yeah, but this This is the worst case of analytics since Tampa Bay pulled their picture in the sixth inning of the world. Siri's. I mean, if we look at what's happening, it's very clear that there are people who are either lying to the pollsters because they're embarrassed about their choice. Or they may actively ba trolling the pollsters. So when a pollster calls them, they lie to them. To have this exact moment happened just like the tick talkers all registered for a trump event. So now we have a level of trolling going on a national level. E think there's a simpler explanation and that's that You were not all trolls. I

think the simpler explanation is that pollsters are empiricist and they're experts. And, uh, like a lot of experts, you could kind of you can kind of interpret the trump phenomenon of Of over performing now, two elections in a row is a kind of revolt against the experts. Uh, and they don't see their biases. Uh, the way they should. They're they're blind to certain things. There's really no excuse for how bad they missed this one because they may have been experts yesterday, not experts. Well, this is I mean, this is what Trump does. This is why people support him in spite of the fact that I don't think anyone disagrees with Jason's opinion of his of his character is that they love sticking it to the to the eggheads. You know what happens, Thio media like what happens to how we conduct ourselves, like, do you do you read the New York Times tomorrow and think, Wow, I'm going to trust the times. I'm not saying you did before, but I'm just using it as a generality to sort

of ask the question like what happens to media e think I believe in? You know, all of these polls and all of these mainstream press. I mean, this validates the arguments effectively that Trump has been making right that you've been told lies, that these polls were lies that everybody was trying to manipulate you. I mean, it's This is a validation of those who are flipping the middle finger at Washington and at the coast, and they're saying we're not going to be told how to believe how to think, how to vote, Um, How to wear masks, How aware? Mass. And, you know, there is a dangerous side to this 100%. It's the end of expertise. I mean, who can we ever trust? I mean, and this is Putin. Ironically, it's the experts who got mass wrong. Remember that at the time that I was saying that we should wear mass, the W h. O. Was saying we shouldn't. So they were lying. They were deliberately lying to keep pp from being overrun. Eso the experts

have done a horrible job on cove it to Jason. I mean, look, I think that's what I know now. The cynicism of Trump and his approach to absolutely undermine Fauci and say to an admonish, People wearing masks while on stage is a level of danger and is in a dude that's insane. So we know that mass work. You actually were a proponent of it? Yes, of course. Mass mass should never become a Donald Trump last week said, Don't wear a mask. Hey, was he literally made fun of a person wearing a mask? Let's just run through each of the States right now. Wait, Can I kind of respond to that? Jason real quick. Okay, look, look, I You know, I wrote a block post, but going back to April 1st thing that we should that mass should be the policy, and it should never have become a political issue. Okay? It should have been a bipartisan response, and it's unfortunate it became a political issue. Um, but on I'm

not not forgiving that. And it took Trump way too long to get on board with mass. I think right around the time I blogged was published a few days afterwards. First he said it was optional. You could do it if you want. It took him about another three months to actually say that, master? A good idea. I agree that had he just gone all in on a mass policy, I think this would not even be a close election. I mean, that was probably the single biggest blunder that he made politically this year. 100%. Okay, so we agree on that. But But But look, but you're missing the other half of it, Which is what is our co va policy going to be today? And the reality is that Joe Biden and all these blue state governors are still on the record, a Z being in favor of lockdowns. And in fact, they are doing lockdowns. The only reason why Michigan and Wisconsin but I say especially Michigan would ever be in play tonight was because of lockdowns. Yeah, resounding rebuke of lockdowns. Let's just sit through these real quick Arizona Pull it up, Nick

Arizona Here we are. Biden. 54% of we round up 45 for Donald Trump, 75%. Looks like Arizona is going to Biden. Next up, let's take a quick look at Iowa. Um, Iowa, 64% in. And we're in a essentially a dead heat with e I was going to Trump e was going to Trump. You could see how that numbers come down. Aziz. The Election Day vote starts to trickle in. That's going to try it. So they were one of the states that did the drop off ballots mail in ballots first. Yes, I think I think that's fair to say. Okay, Ohio. Critically important. Let's take a look at Ohio while we're here. Ohio. Wow, that's really flipped hard. With a commanding lead. You can kiss that. Goodbye, Ohio, just to the North Carolina we are now within. What can we just all agree? If we were

I mean, alright, if we're mo mentum investors, I mean, this thing is, this is a disaster for Biden thinks is a disaster for Biden. And on top of this, all our talk is about the presidency. They're not going to get the Senate either. No, uh, Tillis is running ahead of Trump in North Carolina, so I think he's home free. And while the vote in Maine is not fully in yet, there's only about 41%. Collins has ah, 40,000 vote lead, which is Susan Collins keeps her seat, that is the biggest that that is like the mega upset the Democrats were already. They were targeting her two years ago after she voted for Kavanaugh. Yeah, way through this, by the way. Just keep this in mind. CNN right now shows I mean, I CNN's head must be up there ass or we don't know what we're doing. But they show 1 92 to 1. 14 Biden. Yeah, because they called California. They

called California when the polls closed. So that's 55. Yeah. Okay, North Carolina, here we go. Way did North Carolina, I believe. Yeah. At 95% reporting and Trump has ah, lead. That looks like, yeah, unless there's a lot of Charlotte out, I think that North Carolina is over And that, by the way, that percentage is outside the recount. Ah, window. I think you have to be within 1%. Okay, let's take a look at Georgia for a quick second. We said that was You know, if we've counted North Carolina's mainland, I think that I think they were all dumped at the outset. North Carolina. One of the reasons why we were watching them tonight is that, like Florida, they can count in advance. And so they dumped. They dumped a bunch right at the outset here. By the way, I just got it. By the way, I just checked the betting lines. Trump is over 3 to 1 favorite to win the election right now. Later it later it goes, the more significant that is. Why did it come down to 200 on bravado? That's the lowest it's been. I

just got. I just got 3 to 1 on one of the sides. This is Yeah, you know, if you assume that Biden takes Arizona, Trump takes North Carolina. South Carolina, Georgia. Let's go, Thio. Biden wins Arizona. If Biden wins Arizona, he could lose Michigan. So Georgia is currently 54%. Just declared that Biden won Arizona. Oh, well, okay, that's a quick call. Uh, just take Pennsylvania. Okay, so now this is what I'm saying. This is why this is in place. So if you assume Biden takes Arizona, so that's now on the table. Now, if you say that Trump takes North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Florida, Texas, Ohio, etcetera, he still needs to pull out a victory in Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota. otherwise get this or Nevada? Well, actually, Nevada would be enough. Nevada would be enough

. Otherwise, let's go to Minnesota, guys, old guys, Hold on, Just let me finish, please. It's going to be if Trump so. If that happens, Trump needs to win one of Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota. Otherwise, it's 2 72 68 by Wow. Okay, so here's Minnesota. Let's just pause for a second. Biden, with Biden's, got a ah, 56% to 42 with 54% in. So there's a lot more to come in. But I think Michael, you would agree. That's a bridge too far. I I never thought Minnesota was in play. The Republicans, the Republicans, put a brave face on their on, and they are making some gains in the rural areas. But Minnesota was never in play. Time to go to Wisconsin time together. Wisconsin. Let's take a Let's pause here. We got to do this step by step. Everybody. Wisconsin, 51% to 47%. Donald Trump with 54%. That too, I think. Feels like a bridge too far. Or do we not know if they did? You know, I think Wisconsin is another one who's probably counted their Election Day vote first. So

no eso still very much alive in Wisconsin. Exactly. Milwaukee doesn't come in until tomorrow morning. Michigan. We need to take a quick look at Michigan, and then we're almost done. Okay, here's Michigan Donald Trump at, uh, training to 55% to 44% for Biden Onley 44. 4% are in on. Let's be clear. Is this, um, Detroit vote first? Okay. That Michigan? Yeah, that that can't that Wayne County vote is very low. Yeah, look at that. 28%. A lot of more lot more votes there. Okay, so we don't know about Michigan. Michigan is very much up in the air. That's a That's a pretty good margin for Trump there, but I would say it's very much up in the air. But by the way, if you put Arizona in Biden's column, he could lose Michigan. Let's take a look at Pennsylvania. One more, actually, and her mouth is right. He could lose, but he could lose either Michigan or Pennsylvania, and still, he Trump needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin, one of Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota. So basically

Minnesota, right? If Detroit s okay, so then if Detroit doesn't show up and Milwaukee and Green Bay don't show up, Trump wins Pennsylvania Jamaat. Does that assume that he wins Pennsylvania? Yes, if I give you if we give in Pennsylvania. So again, this is why I think, guys, um, it feels like Biden. I'm a little shaky on my prediction right now. I actually think the betting markets they're showing it's tightened almost to even. And let me ask Braddock. Question, Brad, if the betting markets they're saying it's almost even in the analysis we just did isn't missing any information. Yeah. Why are the futures markets still trading up? 1.5 points. And why are things still you know, I think that Listen, the stock market's ripped the last two days, assuming that Biden is gonna win. And I think what the markets are starting to price in is that this is not

gonna be a blue wave. There is no mandate here for massive tax reform. There's gonna be a divided senate. It's gonna be hard to pass legislation that's gonna be overly onerous, that the stimulus package is gonna be smaller. Not larger, which is why the rates are backing up. So I think from a I think, from a public markets perspective, the idea that we're going to have some checks and balances in place. It can live with either the devil we know or it can live with Biden. But it doesn't wipe. Want Biden with Elizabeth Warren is Treasury secretary, Democracy three. I think scenario three is starting to look very possible. Biden and a Republican Senate, And, uh, I could sleep soundly with that e. I don't I don't know. We're gonna have to you guys. I don't know what you're looking at, but but I mean 1.9 e I mean, that's like, That's a huge significant right there. It's still good. I give you that, but I

don't know those those numbers until it's moving fast. I wanna I wanna take it down to 1 80 e. Want to go back to this topic that brought up? Okay, guys, look, we'll have a winner, and it's going to be close. It, um but think of how many people, um, like, isn't there any empathy for all these people? That air that just feels so completely shut out of the system like, what do we do tomorrow? Like irrespective, actually, whether Trump wins or Biden wins, I think Brad's right. We're gonna basically get, you know, nothing much is gonna happen at that level. But what do we do with the like on Main Street? Like, what are we doing to close the gap between folks so that you know, this entire cohort, like, literally, I don't care whether Biden wins by the popular vote by five million or seven million? You're talking about tens of millions of people. Bill Gurley is now on the line. Another one of our best to guest is Bill. Thanks for joining us. You heard

the question being teed up here. This is neck and neck. This is not something anybody. At least pollsters came anywhere close to predicting. And Jamaat's question, I think, is a really valid one who is got a greater chance of bringing the country back together and maybe leading from the middle and maybe healing this wound because this has been the worst four years. I believe in any of our lifetimes in terms off the anxiety and the anger between people who used to be able todo e. I want to know Bill's opinion. Because, by the way, Bill Gurley its A mask. Jason, Jason Bill! Best venture capitalists in the world. Phil! Phil, Phil, stop hijacking our fucking broadcast! Go ahead, girly. So thanks for having me on I You know, I think you guys have done a really good job of breaking down. Why people have miss estimated this thing. There was a you know, there's such a rural urban

split. There was there was a really good New York Times daily podcast about two weeks ago where they interviewed rural Democrats and in Pennsylvania that had switched to Trump. Uh, and and all the voices they echoed were very similar with Brad walked through with his mother. And so I do think there's a true lack of empathy for the center states in the rural areas from the coastal elites. And I'd say part of breaking any of it down would be somehow trying to separate that. I think a bigger issue that has really been on my mind lately is just how tribal everyone's gotten. And I I've come to believe that the way you can probably just ruin your mind the most is to just join the tribe and quit thinking about things. And the number of people I know on both sides that have run off to their tribe is shocking to me. And and it's just not a way to go about being smart because, you know

, and and if you anyone that makes fun of a you know, religion that's extreme or something, it's all the same shit, like you're just believing dogma for the sake of it. So I one of the things that I worry about about a trump victory is just very tactically in my life, and maybe it's part of living in California, but a whole bunch of people and things that I want to get solved, become more manic if he wins, like my kid's school and the companies that I work with and covert. Quite frankly, I I think that we can't get past co vid with Trump because the TDs S are so convinced that it has to be problematic and it's just, you know, so I don't I Actually I don't know the exact path to solve it, but I do worry about just being in a world where everyone hates each other, and it just doesn't seem solvable that way. Well, this is why I think you know this this scenario which, uh, we've called the soft landing

where Let's say you had a Biden victory by two electoral votes the Republicans hold onto the Senate. Um, I think the radical left gets a big It's a rebuke, um, or a shock. And we have basically divided government in Washington, but it takes the whole temperature down because, you know, Trump gets replaced by Biden. But you've kind of got, you know, basically Joe and his old pal Metro and a power sharing arrangement in Washington. It could be a really good situation for the country for the next four years. You know, temperature would go down that we kind of this, you know, healing process, if you will. But, you know, there wouldn't be a whole lot of new sort of legislation that we have to worry about. I think we would get what we want, which is the ability to ignore Washington for four years. Yeah, but we wouldn't get a solution to really what ails us. Which is the fact that there's all these people that just feel completely shut out. And that really bothers me at some very basic level, which is, like, I just think like, you know, I fought

my family. My parents just escape some third world fucking shit hole to go to Canada, and, you know, Canada gave us a lot, but it still wasn't enough for me. I crawled and scratched to get into the United States. Things work out, but I don't feel like I have a right to all of a sudden, Um, I don't know, just, like, look down on other people or make people feel like shit or not allowing you actually think Shama that Biden is going to do that or do you think Biden is going to be? But, Jason, I think middle ground who? No, with the Republicans in the Senate, And you know what I'm saying is independent of what happens we're gonna have Basically, we're gonna have a photo finish. And what I think what Brad said is right. The fact that we're in a photo finish means that there are a lot of people in pain and I think we have a responsibility to get our heads out of our ass is and stop the sanctimonious

holier than thou bullshit. I agree with Brad when he says that it really hits a nerve with me because I feel like there are a lot of people. We work with the mall. It's rife within the tech culture and all these fuck bags think they know what they're talking about all the time, and we're doing a disservice to so many Americans and we need to wake up, and that's what bothers me. The idea that there are so many people who feel like they're just getting so fucked really bothers me. That bothers me. So I I can ignore Trump. I'll ignore his bullshit because, honestly, he's done nothing. He will do nothing. He is a complete fucking void, Um, but whether it's Trump or Biden in a to 70 to 68 election, the fact that so many people still use this guy as a vessel I don't know that makes that makes me more upset. I think some people, I think what everyone thinks has some degree of empathy to the problem. I think there are different points of view on the solution, which is where

the stuff gets realized. The one point of view is we should have less government involved in our lives and our businesses. And the other point of view is we should have more support and help from the government. And that's where things diverge very quickly. Um, it doesn't feel to me like anyone in politics is necessarily ignoring what you're highlighting. And I don't think anyone in America does. From the rich to the port, to the left, to the right, I think the solutions air miscast because, for example, like, what are we supposed to do, like with our higher educational institutions, the people that are turning out all these folks that are meant to go and collaborate and find middle ground? I mean, I clearly like all of this as our educational facilities air completely, failing from grade school all the way through to high school, Um, community College College grad school. It's all just to contrive piece of shit, right? We are completely putting out one in two people for failure. Okay, so that much is clear, so I don't see politicians fixing that on

either side of the aisle. What? I mean, honestly, what are we supposed to dio. I mean, I just might just suggest that, um, two things, Um, number one. I think in these results that, you see, there's a you know, there is extraordinary frustration, right with the state of affairs. The fact that trump in the middle of co vid after four years of tortuous, anxiety inducing tweets, could even be in a neck to neck race to win this election tells you right how devastatingly bad people feel about how the how they're being treated. I think that, you know, I said recently, I mean, we have to redraft the social contract, this idea who've been living under a social contract drafted post World War Two. Um, that, you know, is pre technology revolution. We have a concentration of wealth today in in the world and in this country like we've never seen. And

we have, uh, Republicans that air set in their ways who say, you know, no, no universal health care, you know, no reform of the education system. You have democrats who are demanding that you have universal basic income. I think you have to have, um, pragmatic, Smart, younger published. I mean, the fact that we have two old white men. I mean, neither of these folks is on top of their game. E mean neither of these, like this is e u. Compare Biden to Pete Buddha. Judge. I mean Buddha. Judge is Buddha. Judges walks into the lion's den of Fox TV and tames the lion every night, every night. Right? Let's get Pete Buddha, Judge solving some of these problems. Let's get some younger ideas on the Republican side solving these problems. But we're going to have to re architect, architect, that social contract

, No doubt about it. Um, you know, and I think the second thing is that you know, to me, this is going to be a wake up call to the nominating process is in both parties. But But let's be clear. Mike Pence, right, has his road map. Um, you know, for you know how to win the election. Indiana governor, right? He's going to tap into the same fears that Trump tapped into. I mean, these fears aren't going away, right? Is that the exacerbation of the wealth disparity is going to increase, not decrease. We see it every day out here, and so I think you're going to have to have, you know, the Democratic Party who nominates people, puts people, you know forward. Who can you know who can tap into this? Who do you like? If it wasn't Biden, who would you like? Buddha Judge. Buh digits. He's a South. This was, you know, an openly gay mayor of

my hometown in Indiana. You think he can sell, right? Who fought, who fought in Afghanistan and who goes on Fox News every damn night, right? And has a conversation that leaves Republicans saying, Oh, that guy's pretty smart, right? Yeah, I agree that he is a tremendous political talent. Do you think that he's a pragmatic enough bread? Or he would He would end up fearing more towards, you know, sort of like politically correct leftist socialist agenda and then have the same result. I think that there is a There's been a doctrine in the Democratic Party that to win the primary, you gotta veer to the left, right? You got to contend with Bernie. You got to contend with Elizabeth Warren. But ultimately that's a losing strategy in in the election. And so I think you're going to have the emergence of a middle of the country governor, middle of the country. Mayor. Somebody like Pete, who's

going to run, you know, on a smart, younger, pragmatic Democratic ticket? Um, I think that's a winning formula. I mean, I think that's the Clinton formula. Um, you know, Obama was a bit of anomaly, but the Clinton formula was a conservative, pragmatic form of of Democratic Party leadership. I mean, I suspect that in the next three or four days, I'm going to get a call from the Democratic leadership figuring out how much they can count on me. And my message to them is you guys can go fuck yourselves until you figure this out. Because to your point, Brad, it is absolutely shameful that were in. No, I'm serious that we're in. I know you are. That's what I love. Well, but Jamaat, I mean, what you should tell them to do is go form a D. L. C. Remember the Democrat Leadership Committee that Bill Clinton forms. So remember what Bill Clinton did. You know, when he won in 92 we had three straight Republican presidential terms round. Reagan, incredibly successful president and his successor, basically Reagan, one of Bush

won a third term for Reagan, but he was a weak candidate and Clinton came in there. What did he do? He triangulated. He tacked towards the center. Um and, you know, he he actually passed a lot of bipartisan legislation. David, David, David, Let me make this even more blunt. Um, my million bucks will grow to $10 million A per election took $50 million per election as I get older. Okay, so these motherfuckers want a single goddamn dollar for me. What I want first is a root cause analysis to understand what is actually going on. So, to your point, before you fix it, you need to be honest and identify the problem. Well, I mean, I think that I think it's it's because that that the issue that Trump ran against was that Joe Biden was a Trojan horse for radical for a radical left that really owns the Democratic Party right now. That's what he ran against Bill Gurley. What do you think the issues are that if we were going to try to have a great reconciliation between these two

parties between Middle America and the coastal elites where you have spent you know, large swaths of your life. I think perhaps you're the only person here who has lived in both places. Middle of America, from Indiana. Okay, but I trust your judgment on these issues. Well, what does the what does the what are the coast need to understand about the people who believe who win, who live between the coasts and what they're trying to express to us? And how can we, as coastal occupants and citizens, due to kind of bridge this gap other than just moving to Austin and getting the hell out of California, which is devolving, which is what I feel like doing at this point? Well, to have two comments on this one. You know, having having listened to you know, as much as I can on the of the voter conversations, including this call. Um, I'm not 100% sure that these people feel unrepresented. I think a lot of them want to be left

alone, and so part part of what's being engineered or what they fear is being engineered is someone sitting in a city with views that are very different than them telling them that this is the world they have to live by, and I think the lock down fit in with that. But a lot of other things, too, that the daily podcast I mentioned, you know, there was this guy just saying What is What is Nancy Pelosi know about what I want my day to day life, you know? And so there is a notion of being left alone. Brad Story about his mom was like, Hey, we're fine here like, Don't don't bother me. And so there's a There's a difference between trying to solve a problem for him and being empathetic to the point of view. And And I would say, um, having spent a lot of time in these areas and being a slow talker and sometimes made fun of For that there is a There is unquestionably a type of social bias against rural Americans in in

urban cities. There's just no doubt it's the only joke you're allowed to tell without getting rebuked. In other words, we could make fun of the rednecks and weaken it all day long. All day long, we can we can do a Bill Gurley impersonation are e. I mean, if we and this is the thing that I don't understand when I grew up, and I'm curious other people's opinions here, and I'll let anybody who wants to jump in on this. It feels like the lessons I was taught in the seventies and eighties, which were America is strong because we're a melting pot. We take the best of all the cultures and we try to make our own out of it and that you get to make choices for your life and in your city, town and state that don't have to be the same as the ones we make in New York. So if you wanna have a handgun and you wanna put it on your waistband in Texas or wherever and in New York City we don't wanna have handguns in the city because it's a little bit more crowded, we can we

can have that difference and we can coexist. And I don't know when we lost this script that what makes America great is the differences and that people living in different parts of a very large, diverse country can have different opinions about, you know, abortion and what month abortion is allowed to occur at or the owning of a gun or you know how tall a building can be built. When did that get taken off the table? And who took it off the table? You know who took it off the table was he's hysterical lives, and I think the hysterical as much as this far. Right, Trump, You know, uh, you know, flags on pickup trucks surrounding other cars is absolutely horrible. Toe watch. I have equal disdain for hysterical lives trying to tell somebody who lives on a ranch that they can't have a gun when they've never even been to a goddamn ranch. And they've never had to use a gun to protect their family

, because the ah cop coming to your ranch is gonna take 45 minutes. And and that's what America needs to get back to is respecting each other's different lifestyles. Whether you're an atheist or your devoutly Catholic V villa different, Ron's let people live their goddamn lives. I think it's in a stew Point Bill Jake, how can we run down California next? Very curious how Prop 22 is doing and 22 is ahead, girly. Oh, praise Jesus! The goddamn people are allowed, Bill Can you tell everyone where Prop. 22 is? And why, please, why? Why? Yeah, but And it would transition to a whole bunch of conversations about politics that I feel more passionate about than who gets elected, which is, if you know, in order to solve the problems that everyone's upset about within inequality and whatnot. I think you have to have massive innovation and you have

to have job growth. And I don't know of any waves in history where you get a whole bunch of improvement in in standard of living for broad swaths of a population without being positively aligned with job growth and what there is. Where I'm going with this is my my biggest concern about Washington. I used to say the main reasons Silicon Valley works it's because it's so fucking far away from D. C. Um, and it's because regulation is the friend of the incumbent and it's the It's the opposite of innovation. It lots and things, and it's very resistant to change. And, um, Matt Ridley's new book, How Innovation Works, goes through this over a very, very long period of time. It's it's fantastic, and he talks about why Europe's gotten stuck. And like the top 50 market cap companies in Europe, there's no new entrant in 30 years or something like that. Um, because of this, anyway, Prop. 22 is a California

proposition reaction to a law that was put on the California books called a B five To the best of my knowledge, and this is consistent with the editorial groups at the L. A Times the San Francisco Chronicle in the San Diego Tribune is that it was written entirely by a union, the S E I. U. Who has no representation over over drivers or gig workers whatsoever. They represent service industry workers on day would like to represent uber drivers, but they don't today. And I think I think about this like a bunch of people living in Nevada trying to pass a law for the citizens of California. Unfortunately, because the regulatory capture which which I think is unfortunate on both sides of the aisle, um, the unions, able through a woman named Lorraine Gonzales, is able to get the state to pass a law that that basically targeted gig workers, which was this new job type that has all these fantastic benefits anyway. Um, immediately

thereafter, there were several industries were like, Oh, we don't want this for us. So them and their unions and constituents started calling on Sacramento with Lorena Gonzalez and carving them out one by one. So by the by the time 85 was set to be put in action there over 100 industries that have been carved out because it was a stupid law written just to target and a single industry and it was written with political donor dollars. Now, in a moment that I would say is completely outside of my realm of what I expected. Um, all of the newspaper, all the editorial boards for all of the major newspapers in California came to the conclusion that this was a bad law, that this was crony capitalism written with donor dollars. And they all got behind Prop. 22 which is because we have this ballot initiative in California is a way for the voters to tell Sacramento that they're full of shit. And that looks like what's happening

right now. Sorry for the long answer. No, no, it's it's It's a great answer. And what? What's particularly infuriating about this on. Listen, you and I are both, you know, investors in companies impacted by this, um is that it's There's a group of people who have been exempted from this and the list of people exempted all seem to be just slightly more powerful and slightly better paid. Um, sales people, uh, fishermen, psychologists, uh, surgeons, dentists, engineers, architects, lawyers, etcetera. And if this had passed, or if it still does pass because we're only at 15 or 20% of people have been counted so far. But it's looking like Prop. 22 will pass well in one of the businesses I run inside dot com. We had to, uh, tell all of the freelancers we were hiring

who are writers, that they would lose their gig, work with us because they could Onley right five stories a year or 10 stories a year. And Box, one of the big publishing companies, which is incredibly left leaning as left as it gets. They stopped hiring people in California, and they fired and laid off all their California freelance writers And what this does to people who are doing gig economy. 70% of them are working part time, Nick Can you go back, Thio? Can you? I I need to switch topics. Nick, can you go to Georgia, please, for a second. Little, little late breaking data over 400,000 votes outstanding in Atlanta In the suburbs. Um, how close? Yeah, Let's see. Oh, my God. It's a statistical dead heat. If you had back in 400,000 for all by now, I'm just saying that's not where it's gonna be. But, uh, e mean

, Atlanta, Atlanta should go 70% by sure. Well, maybe 75. 80. But e, I guess you'd have to be 100 to 0 to catch up if I'm being that Anyone seen anyone here cynical enough to think that there's some operative in these states holding these on purpose so that they could be the center of importance tomorrow? No, I just think it's It's almost midnight on the East Coast and people are tired and they're gonna go home and have a shit shower and a shave and start again tomorrow. That's the reason the earliest so successful, always early, always knows how to diagnose the individual motivation. A on beacon diagnosis the shit out of it. I just think about what one guy's motive is, and then he's figured the whole thing out. He makes a billion dollars over a master of self interest Bill Gurley. Here's what. Here's what it comes down to. So Trump needs to win two out of four of these states Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

or Michigan and he's gonna win two of those four. So it's gotta be probably Pennsylvania and Michigan or Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But he's gotta win. If he loses Nevada, he needs to win two out of those three Rust Belt states or he wins Nevada. Plus, like a Pennsylvania. Yeah, this is gonna be this is gonna be really Michigan's gonna go to Trump is going to come down to Pennsylvania, Um, and really to the to the Philly suburbs. I was reading on Twitter. Uh, election official in Michigan says don't expect results before Friday. God, that's crazy. Well, and by the way, I mean eso. But let's just think for a second how extraordinary it is that Trump looks like you might win Michigan. I mean, just to go back to the, you know, the theory of the of the case that we were laying out earlier. Um, about how China, About how Trump picked up this this China trade issue four years ago

and and And this this time he combined it with the lock down issue. I mean, it's really amazing that that state is leaning Trump. Right now, Michigan, Michigan was two issues. It was, uh, you know, working class Democrats feeling like Trump standing up for them with respect to China. And it was locked down and locked down, wasn't it was an overwhelming issue. Uh, you know, for my for my friends and my folks in Michigan for sure. Can we go back to prop 22 for a second, Jason? Because I think that this is, um you know, this is a a knish. You of extreme importance. You know, one of the things that Bill didn't say is you know, we're talking earlier. Cimatu brought up. You know what's the third way? You know, wave, we build a social contract on the back of kind of w two tied employment for the better

part of the last 70 years. We now have a massive part of the economy. That's gig. And it's not just this is all freelancers. This is all part time workers and post co vid. This is just a massive portion of the economy, and the idea that we're gonna tie all benefits to W two is just totally asinine. It's gotta be re architected on what Prop 22 does is. Say it's I C. Plus it's independent contractor plus benefits, right? It's this idea that we don't have to tie benefits to W to employment, right? So the nonsensical no argument against Prop. 22 this was an abandonment of the employee is just that. It combines flexibility with benefits. And, you know, from my perspective, you're going to see if Prop. 22 passes, which I think it will tonight it's gonna be the architectures that New York and many other

states follow. Um, they're certainly not going to follow the disastrous a B five example. Um, but we also know that it's not sufficient. Just toe have ah bunch of workers with with zero health care and you know, and so I think that this is a, uh, you know, hats off to door dash, insta cart. You know, uber and lyft trying trying to design something that is a middle way and you know, to meth. If we don't have politicians designing a middle way, right, then we need leadership out of the business community design in the middle way. Well, that So you just said something so so profound and I was gonna I would like to build on that. I think what California shows is that, um, if you have a completely democratic up and down ticket and it veers too far to this Coast told navel gazing Socialist Nanny State, then it requires money and companies to

basically level the playing field because the Republicans can't do it, and it's possible to fight back. And what's interesting to me is nobody ever talks about or maybe they do. And I don't just don't hear it about how the equivalent happens on the right. Um, it would be interesting to know if you guys know of any states where there's just Republican up and down the ticket and they just veer into such a detached laissez faire where the whole state needs to get corrected by for profit organizations. But it seems like we're setting up for Democrats versus companies and people moving to Republican states to have low taxes and to be left alone. Well, you know, it's a sensible set of outcomes in California, right? I mean, do you guys not agree that the yes on Prop. 22 Sacks? It looks like your commercial property tax proposition that Zuk helped fund may not pass its's

. Thank God, it's a way don't know. It's a 0.1% differential. Yes, E no, I agree. It's look, The California ballot initiatives were looking really good. Right now, it gives me a lot of hope. It gives me a lot of hope about the state because the most anti economic the most, let's put a business unfriendly ballot initiatives. Looks like they're going down starting, you know, with the wind on proper 22. That's huge. But then proper 15. You know, we talked about that on a former episode of the All in pod. This was chipping away at proper 13, which is the great shield of the middle class in terms of property taxes. I'm not saying you couldn't get a better tax regime that would tax commercial property of fair market value, but you sure wouldn't wanna give that card away without demanding some structural reform in exchange for it. Which is why I thought it was just so stupid for, you know, tech billionaires to be funding, you know, these ballot initiatives for higher taxes. You know, this is definitely looking like a like, a sensible, kind of middle ground outcome where a lot of folks

who were concerned about California swinging all the way left and chasing business and enterprise out of the state, um, you know, maybe kind of getting reeled in, and I think it gives them hope and gives him pause, Uh, to a lot of folks who are trying to build businesses in California to recognize that, you know? Hey, there is a thoughtful populist here. Um, totally agree on this is this is a great outcome tonight. I feel I I personally feel really good about. I agree. If this sticks it its's, it is because the big the big issue with California right now is that we've got, you know, people we've got net migration out of the state because it's just so hard for the middle class to live here and to build businesses here. I hope what we hear. You know, if we're fortunate enough for Prop. 22 to pass. I hear we I hope we see a coalition among these companies come together and really promote this as a national architecture er for a third

way for independent contractors, free agents across the country, uh, to have a living wage and benefits. It's totally detached from W to employment. I really do believe, um, bunch of people on this call were helpful to Annette effort. I launched around the board challenge. You know, it's high time for the social consciousness of corporate America to take the leadership position and because it's not coming out of Washington and there's so many issues that the solution lies among us. And we got to stop spending our election nights wondering when somebody is going to deliver us from ourselves. We gotta start delivering ourselves. E think it's a union. I mean, like, you know, girlies girl, are you still with us? How do you resolve things with the unions after this? I mean, if Prop. 22 passes is there a coming to the middle ground with unions and our unions always just kind of directional vector. You

know, they're always like a force on the system. They're not an absolute or objective right there. They're just always pushing in one direction. I mean, what ends up happening with the resolution with unions? Or is it just a constant back and forth to try and manage the impact they'll have on policy politics, tax free market, etcetera? So from from from my point of view, the if you if you think about Citizens United, which a lot of people were upset about, I think rightfully so because D. C is so money oriented, like it's coin operated. And ah, lot of people have vivid awareness of it being coin operated on the right through corporations. This is why the most heavily regulated industries is the hardest to break into hardest to innovate against what, what I think they mrs, how much of it is regulatory capture on the left and the difference that a union has versus a company is it's a natural monopoly, and so it actually has more power

to write regulation. Then a company does, but and it's gonna be around every single election cycle. So if you listen to him, you know, you get what you want and the you know people have pointed out that the gentleman there is not a gentleman. The individual that killed George Floyd probably wouldn't have been on the force if it weren't for the union protecting him. Because the stuff you've done before, but and this goes back to the red and blue and blindness of just being dogmatic to your party. Most of people I know that are heavily, um, uh, prescribed to the to the Democratic tribe. Refused to acknowledge that one of the big problems in police reform comes from the unions. And you can't see those things unless you take yourself out of that single place. Um, I will tell you the California situation, I think is deeper than then. Maybe what Brad talked about Dick, the the rule, the law that's causing more companies toe

leave from my perspective than 85 is something called paga, which was passed about 25 years ago but has finally reached mo mentum where it's causing problems for companies. And this was a law passed by, um, litigators with donor dollars in Sacramento that lets any lawyer bring a case on behalf of the state against the company. And so they they're basically like local sheriffs just running around bringing claims. And of course, they'll settle every time the the the supposed victims air getting about 10% on average on Paige of claims and it once your company has been shook down on three or four pack of claims by a lawyer who is only going to give 10 cents on the dollar to these people that used to work for you, you finally just throw up your hands and say, You know, I don't need to hire someone here, hire someone somewhere else, cost twice as much to hire someone here. And so I I do worry that

if any state or country wants to move forward in our new economy, they can't just be completely anti business, anti tech. Um, that I have a strong point of view on that, but like it won't work. You're gonna grind to a halt. Hey, Jay, Jason, can we go back to the Senate? Is anybody prepared? Toe? I'm getting to read from my analysts who are live blogging to me that the Senate is almost certain to go Republican at this point. With Iowa Maine in North Carolina going to Republican that would do it. And Michigan and Montana both in real danger for Democrats. But even if they lost both of those, um, you're gonna have 51 49 to Republicans in the Senate. A Brad wire markets trading down a bit right now from where they were. Um, I still have it at you know, NASDAQ to 80. So I'm not I'm not prepared to call that down

. I just think that's with Bounce. And both bovada, I guess. Which is the they? The Bravada just came back up. They stopped taking action. Now they've got Trump minus 1 50. Is that how you say it? And Joe Biden plus 1 15. So, too. If you put $100 on Joe Biden, you win 15. Is that right? And if you 100 win 115 115 you probably win $15. 1 15 is very close. Jason and Donald Trump, if you were to put $100 in you make 150. Is that right, Phil Hellmuth, You won 50 to 100. Exactly. Got it. Okay. Yes, E Think the more surprising thing at this point is it's almost you know, I'm certainly going Thio live to write this, But it appears at this point that the market's gonna be up tomorrow almost either

way. And if you look at what the market was saying last week, uh, you know, just yet another surprise. The market is celebrating the fact that this is a close election. Um, but you know, if it's a, uh, if it's a contested transfer of power and we have, you know, there's there's certainly ah, lot of room for uncertainly uncertainty to still be injected into this. But it likes the fact that we whether it's Biden or Trump who pulls out the presidency, it's certainly liking the fact that it's gonna be a close election right now just to give people an indication. Fox News has Joe Biden at 227 electoral votes and Trump at 204. The New York Times is that to 13 and 136 for Trump. The Senate on The New York Times is 44 dams, 45 Republicans. What? And I don't know how we're supposed to who we're supposed to trust Here. There's

a Senate. The Senate on Fox News is 45 Democrat, 44 Republican. So this is a dead heat which I think could lead us towards the great reconciliation, which is, if Trump comes out of office, Biden becomes the elder statesman. Biden reaches across the aisle. We have a massive balance of power in the Senate. Everybody is forced to work together in order to get anything done. Am I correct in my reading of this as a non political expert? Well, what you're describing is the great Gerontocracy will have 78 year old Biden negotiating 79 year old McConnell and I. Schumer is, what, 74 75? Pelosi's over 80. Steny Hoyer, her deputy, is over 80. So who do we have in the death pool? Because two or three of those were dying in the next four years? E don't mean to make it dark, but just looking at McConnell and his bruised hands and lips and everything, something's

eating him alive. I'm not exactly sure what it is, but that's a bad, bad scene. Yeah, is that on the betting markets? Phil, That's not in the betting markets. And by the way, the other direction you're talking about Trump, who's 70 for negotiating. I mean, you know it, Z, we've got to get younger in our political leadership across the board. Uh, is there It's ridiculous who had a better chance of beating Trump? Would Bernie, Elizabeth Warren or Buddha Djedje with one of those three? If you had to pick one of those three and I think it's one of those rates or you could pick your other, which one would have performed better? Brad U S O bill? You believe Mayor Pete would have had a better performance? He would have been more inspiring. He would have been more energy. I think that there is a lot of people that want what Brad talked about, which is someone

who's who's rational and calm and centered. And I also think that if you look at the history of of presidential campaigns, um, most Americans favor and outsider and I attribute that personally to them feeling like Washington's on the hook and been bought and you know Biden would be an outlier for a lifetime. Senators. There was a lot. There was a lot of excitement around Obama. There was a lot of excitement about Reagan who came, you know, from Hollywood. There was a lot of excitement about Clinton. So you know, a lot of governors. A lot of a lot of first time senators is what you tend to see. And so Pete fit that mold. Why do some youth and some charisma would be nice on And David the two Davids and Michael, Who do you think would have put up the best fight? Because tonight, if Biden does win, and it's feeling maybe like that's gonna happen, so it's a it's clearly a jump ball here

. It's any. It's coming down to the last 36 last minute of the game. If Biden does lose, who would have been the candidate that would have beaten Trump if there was another one who would have had the next best chance? David's? Well, Biden still looking pretty good right now, so I don't know that there. I don't know that there was somebody better, but I do agree that I always was most impressed with Buddha judge out of the candidates in the sense that I thought he was the most articulate. I thought it was the best debater I thought was the best on TV, and he knew how to reach for the center. And he had kind of Obama thing of having identity politics, working for him, but without making a big deal out of it. Um and and so, yeah, I mean, he was What you mean by that, Mr Sachs? Well, he's gay. He would be the first gay president, but he's not making that an explicit part of the reason to vote for him. And but it would have been a first, and his voters would know that. But he doesn't wanna, you know, he

doesn't want to run on the idea of identity politics, and so so he's not leading with that. He's not leading with it. I think that's a smart way to play it. It's, you know, Obama was obviously being an incredibly important first, but he didn't lead with. That is the reason why you should vote for him. Um, so to a certain extent, Hillary did lead with that. Hillary was going to be the I'm with her, you know, and was the slogan. Yeah, and I think a lot of people did want to make that first. But I think you have those votes you need to make the case to everybody else. Um, so, yeah, I think he's a great political athlete and you know, someone who's got probably a bright future in the Democrat Party. I'm seeing some people on Twitter say that Biden's now become the favorite, but I just checked Betfair. It's basically 1.1. It's very close now. Kind of crazy thing. This is going to come down toe this, gonna come down to Pennsylvania and Michigan, and it's gonna take days to do those counts and probably end up in the courts. Betfair Friedberg

. Who would have done a better job here? Look, the market already voted right. It voted for for Biden. He is the leading candidate. I don't know if anyone else would have outperformed Biden at this point. I think you know the next in line was a very different ideology. And that's Bernie. And, um, you know, Bernie really is the contrast Teoh. You know the point that we were making earlier? You either think that the way forward is to have the government leave me alone or to wrap me up in a blanket and give me a hot cocoa and rub my feet and Bernie Sanders is the, you know, the guy in middle school who runs for class president and tells you the vending machines. They're all gonna be free if you elect me on bats a broadly, you know, like everyone votes for that guy and let me e Let me ask you a question, Brad, that I build off of David's just I just think the mayor Pete, by the way, let me just say I think they repeat is a great, articulate, thoughtful guy. And he's certainly appealing to those of us who wanna have a thoughtful, well articulated

response to the problems we're facing. But I think that there is a guttural kind of, you know, and they drive that folks want. They either want free shit or they want to be left alone. And, you know, you're you're gonna need to appeal to one of those two motives. Brad, how would you have voted? Had your choice been? I'm gonna go around the horn on this. Everybody gets a chance to think about it, except really. Brad. Brad, if you had the choice. Yeah, Elizabeth Warren slash Bernie. Hardcore Socialist. Let's go with Bernie since I think he's even more on the Socialist side Or Trump, could you have conceived of voting for Trump over Bernie? Or would you have voted Actually voted for Bernie Sanders. Take your time and you can think out loud when you answer. I have to say that, um, you know, I have a nine and 12 year old boy boys, and the conversation we had is it's not just about what you stand for. It's about how

you stand for it. Character, character. And I just couldn't tolerate, uh, Trump's character either in my own life, my own level of anxiety or standing for that, you know, and and telling my boys that that's ah, Okay, way to lead and s o for me. I was willing to vote against my own interests, um, and taking comfort in the fact that four years under any president is not enough to really change the arc of of of the country, but to send a signal that you know how you lead matters in this country and ah, rejection of this form of leadership. Yeah, but, Brad, if you didn't think that Bernie Sanders policies would actually I mean, if you thought they would actually pass everything he wanted to dio you couldn't conceive then of voting for Trump. Yeah. I mean, you know, again, like, I would just say that I would have bet that the system that we have would have been slow enough in

moving that that Bernie would not have been. You know that when weighing those two evils, right? That, you know, again, for me, Socialism versus Trump. You know, I can I can tolerate the mean spiritedness, perhaps myself. But, you know, like, I'm tryingto you know, I think it is important that we say that, like, this is not what we stand for. This is not a a non arable way to lead. And certainly when it comes toe sitting around the dinner table every night and talking to them about the way I expect them to behave and their former leadership, you know that that mean spiritedness just didn't work for me. Would anybody else like to answer that question? Or is it? Well, I'm not I'm not going to disagree with any of that, but I would just like to point out I'd like to ask the question. Actually, which is if if this president was so bad that he had to be impeached. Why wasn't that a campaign issue? I don't remember being mentioned once by Biden that Trump was impeached. You would think that impeaching the president

would be something you want to make a major campaign issue. Eso I just think this idea that Trump is the only one who's dishonest and unethical. Um, you know, that whole Russian, uh, insane hoax that they put us through for years? They put this whole country through before the guy even took office. They were trying to delegitimize his election. I mean, come on. You can't just look at Trump's behavior, which I agree is outrageous and not look at the other side and say they're doing the same thing. And this is like a They're sort of like co equal partners in this chaos that's been created, their co founders and chaos. Let's be candid, all these politicians that we've had to live within our lifetime of grifters, we know that and their kids air grifters, putting that aside, Do you think there is any chance that the Russians have not bought an inordinate amount of apartments from Donald Trump at extraordinary prices are you just making that up or

I'm just going with my gut, right? Exactly. Yeah, Q e d case in point because you feel it. You can now make an accusation that the President has received bribes from the Russians. I mean, come on. Well, we know, actually, I wanna I wanna bring up something election. We all know Putin interfered with the election, and we all know he interfered on behalf of one candidate. Okay, that's a fact. Unless you don't trust the CIA unless you don't trust the FBI. Unless you don't trust our agent. You believe in a deep hole. The Russians, You re election we've ever had sent J way. Had we had Bob, we have Bob Mueller with a team of, like, 18, like pitbull, Democratic prosecutors and 50 stuff. What happened to FBI agents? Let me, for that matter, who investigated for two years and they couldn't find any collusion. I mean, you're still hanging on to this this insane fallacy. And you're wondering why the American people are turning against

why they're willing to vote for Trump again? Come on. Can't you see the insanity of the other side? Why? I mean I did see Manafort go to jail and pay a 25 $30 million fine. And I did see that Trump's kids took the meeting with the Russians to try to set up a secret back channel. So while they might not have been smart enough for effective enough to actually collude, there certainly was a lot of graph going. This is this is this is on the level, if not worse than the whole Hunter Biden hard drive story, which I thought you're too, which I thought was a ridiculous story and attempt to smear up Biden. Come on for you to lay this integrity issue on Trump alone, which I agree there's some treats there and not lay it on his Democratic inquisitors in the Senate who put in the house who put us through this impeachment hooks for two years. Come on, we're starting to sound a little like AM Radio way did go there. No freethinker. I like this

for, but you gotta But But this word impeachment. This entire campaign is on both sides. E for Jason. Can you say the word for Can you say it? Can you say the word? Impeachment, Impeachment Okay, There we go. I was wondering what happened to that word you don't normally, normally, when you have with the president, normally when you impeach a president becomes a really big campaign issue becomes a really big campaign. Nick, can you please throw Georgia back on the map, please? Are you guys seeing this? That that now they're tipping Georgia back to, uh, Biden. Who is? Yeah, this is insane. Where? Well, they're also saying that Arizona may have been premature. Truly called for Biden. So Arizona, maybe back and play for Trump. That was really weird that they called Arizona so early, wasn't it, Nick? And only

Fox. Only Fox has done it, I think. Yeah. Nick, where do you have? How do you have Georgia reporting right now? How much is in right now? Yeah, if you call in Georgia just for a second, we have 81%. Yeah, The Times had it flip on at 9:13 p.m. I have a screenshot which shows Biden plus four. And then North Carolina is now just Trump plus 1.1 Michael in Arizona when they show that supporting its precincts reporting right, it doesn't show UH, mail ins or by precinct or mail ins or at the state level? Well, a precinct will have both mail ins and election Day votes. Uh, and when they when they say 81% of precincts reporting, that doesn't mean that 81% of precincts are finished reported. It's a very misleading, uh, number, because what it means that 81% of precincts have reported what they have but doesn't mean they're finished counting necessarily. So

you know, Atlanta is probably the precincts in Atlanta have probably reported some vote. In fact, we see that when we click on it, but there's obviously a lot of outstanding vote in Georgia. There could be outstanding vote in some precincts in North Carolina as well. And they at this point, once you get into the 95% and above range, they do tend to be, uh, urban centers that are that obviously have a lot more vote to count. It gets late at night. They go home. Uh, they finish in the morning or three days later. If you go zoom in on Arizona, please. 76% of voting reporting. I mean, how is this possible 54%. Basically, I don't know. But in all those things, you're gonna have the intensity you had around hanging chads and Dade County. You're just gonna have, like, massive tension and drama around counting each of these last. Yeah, we're gonna have five. Florida's. You knew 2020 would do this on the way out the door. Yeah, so? So Arizona. They counted

all the absentee ballots for the mail in ballots first, but the in person voting hasn't been counted yet. So you can't call that state if they haven't counted all the in person. Because Trump's gonna do better with, you know, Election Day ballots. I agree. It's premature. Well, it depends on whether they're considering Phoenix is part of that, right? Okay. Why is Nevada on Lee reporting 1% in local news? There are now groups of people gathering at Oakland City Hall. So they go there when, Like what? Night? Aren't they rioting in Oakland? I mean, come on. In Berkeley, they smashed a pizzeria window. They do it every other week. Hey, guys, I wanna I wanna just discuss an idea I have That might be a little bit cheeky, but since Jake Allen. I were getting into it before. I kind of wanna I wanna talk about a little bit. Okay. Which is I? I've that called the Trump Derangement score

. Um, which is, if you go to Twitter, that trump derangement score, which is, if you go to Twitter and search Trump from your user name, it will show you how many tweets you've you've published that you've posted that mentioned the word trump and eso. I did this before the show to see which bestie had tweeted the most and see what the score was. And my sense is like, if you're scores like 0 to 10, you haven't really paid a lot of attention to Trump. It's probably, like, very healthy. And then if you're in, like the 10 toe 30 range, you're paying a little more tension. Could be normal interest. Here it comes here, huh? You're from hold on. If you're in like the 30 toe 50 range, I think you pretty much are infected. There's two strains. There's kind of the maggots strain. And then there's the resistant strain. But clearly you've tested positive for Trump Derangement syndrome. And

then I would say there's kind of, like, an advanced level where you can't even count. How many tweets there are? You gotta, like, scroll. And like, you keep scrolling and you can't even get to the bottom. And that's that's like a level of infection where you need to immediately quarantine yourself. And so, anyway, I I did this, and, uh, anyway, the winner, actually with Freeburg, Freeburg only had he had a score of one, he literally only had one tweet mentioning Trump. In the last four years, I only had eight. But in fairness, five of them were posted yesterday to advertise this This pod. So, uh, my 20. My one was during this podcast, by the way. Yeah, Jamaat 2012. You had about 20. About 20? Yeah, and then Jake, you were in scrolling territory. I couldn't even I couldn't even count. I gave up. I feel for you. I I really feel for you

that you're hurting over this election. I you know, I don't like I'm not trying to make fun of you are saying Hey, guys, guys another Just another quick update here that DeKalb County Fulton County in Cobb County in Georgia are pro Democrat. They're huge on there are 31% 58% and 70%. And if you play these out, there's somewhere between 405 100,000. Ah, potential incremental votes for Biden, which would eke out Georgia for Biden. Potentially according to just this last just looking at Fox News, I think that they're trolling the Libs because they have Trump at 210. Andi have Joe Biden at 237 the New York Times, as let

me just make sure I'm refreshing here in in the latest data, 213 to 1. 45. So foxes aggressively calling electoral votes um, at a level that the New York Times is far behind, like behind by 50 at least 100. What is the explanation of this? Wow, I This is I mean, this is nuts. Um, MSNBC 205 electoral votes for Joe Biden, which NBC has been the most conservative overall. And did you see what happens if it's tied, it can tie right way. Still have that scenario on the table to 69 to 69. Uh, yeah, there's probably a wayto get there. Uh, let's see. Well, interestingly, uh, Biden did not get that one district

in Omaha, Nebraska, that he had targeted. That Obama won his first time. That would give you one electoral vote in Nebraska, Nebraska and Maine. Both you get you get, uh, two for winning the state and you get one for each of the congressional district. So while while Biden was not gonna play an overall in Nebraska, he had a shot at Omaha and that to 70 to 68. Scenario we talked about earlier could have potentially been to 69 to 69 if that Omaha district was in play. But the polling really missed Michael just to jump in BG. Gurlitt girl's gotta hop off, boys. Say bye, girl. Appreciate it. Bill. Girl. Monsieur STB Speaking of Bill Gurley, how about Texas? I mean, I think I think Texas is is definitely gonna be Republican, right, Michael? Yeah. That one's trending far away from Biden. He looks like he's down about 500,000. How many points is that? No one's called that yet. It's bizarre that Florida and Texas they're still

listed as, uh, employee s. So that could explain what Jake house looking at between the disparity. And yeah, but I don't blame Fox if Fox called Texas. I don't blame them, but I think Arizona. Yeah, that might That would explain your difference. Jaco Texas and Florida. Fuck, Yeah. Fuck, yeah. That's 60 67 votes right there. Yeah. Yeah. So the New York Times has not called Florida or Texas with the New York Times that Florida 98%. I mean, it's like 99.9 or something. If you add 38 for Texas, 29 for Florida, you're 67 67 until the 1 45 put you at 212. Joe Biden to 13. Ralph one point difference, Ralph or knock and Kelly Loeffler and run off for the Senate seat in Georgia. That's just incredible. I mean, hey, guys. Ah, comment. And then a question. Looks like the Washington Post is projecting that California approved Prop. 22

eso There's a That's the first one e speaking right now. E does not speaking yet, but he's getting implied vault to speak. The implied volatility on uber stock at the at the close today was 14% by the way, every ballot initiative in San Francisco, the city level ballot initiatives passed. One of them, the proper H was good. All the rest were disaster. So San Franciso, the state level ballot initiatives were pretty good news for California. But San Francisco? Not much. Not so good. Eso, you know, in terms of what we were talking about earlier about creating a more business friendly environment. Unfortunately, what happened in San Francisco? I think California as a whole is positive with proper 20 to prop 15 failing. But every single crazy ballot initiative in San Francisco passed. So it's just getting crazier. And I don't know if you did this in your household, but with my 10 year old Brad. I went through my wife and I Jade. We went through each of the ballot

initiatives as many as we could. We listened to little encapsulation Zoff what they were when we talked about the stem cell one and I just thought, Why is California which is losing all of these businesses, adding to the tax burden, stem cell research? And why isn't that being done by the private sector? If there is a huge prize to be had with stem cell, why would we have California send billions of dollars on this. When we're losing all the this government, I'm wondering, you know how people thought about something like that, Like the stem cell. Did you vote for that, David, To continue to have California flipped the bill first. By the way, just before you answer David, I took the pages of the ballot initiative and I used them to keep my white truffles from developing humidity. E mean, basically their truth of matter. Jason, is that when When I don't understand a ballot initiative, I just vote against it. And

I didn't really understand that the stumps, a ballot initiative or why even why, if that was a spending priority, why I couldn't just be handled by the state, You know, the Legislature. I didn't understand why that needed to be a ballot initiative. So, you know, I feel like ballot initiative like, I'll support them when the state Legislature does something wrong. Like it was a perfect example where you know, Lorraine or whatever the had this tremendous amount of power past this crazy 85 the people had to overrule that, um so I feel like that's where, like these ballot initiatives makes sense is when you want to overrule the Legislature. But, you know, it's kind of crazy for to passing these laws directly when you know we don't know that much about him. Keep concur. I mean, the founders had this vision of representative democracy, not direct democracy. And that's generally a good idea. So, Jason, I don't know. You have to kind of, like, what? Director? The results that direct democracy is produced tonight. The initiatives maybe saving us from ourselves, since we don't have

in this state, unfortunately, a viable Republican Party to represent us. Uh, the initiatives may be our last line of defense. Well, I think I think you're right in terms of overruling things, But, like in San Francisco, you know, every single about initiative path, I think most um Well, there's no saving San Francisco. We all knew that. Well, I don't like hearing that, uh, come to l a baby way. Got a few more years at least. Um, what is the consensus view? Seems to be the markets are still up. NASDAQ futures up to 80. Still what? What causes us toe wake up tomorrow or the next day and have the futures down 34 500 bills. There's there's one thing, and so far it hasn't happened. And if we avoid it, we're going to fade a really big out here. Um, which is Trump declares, victory Right now. I

think that is the disaster scenario because I think Biden is going to get up there. He's not going to say much of anything. He'll be very kind of down the middle, you know, kind of. Let's take a wait and see approach. We're waiting until tomorrow. There's a lot to go grind it out, blah, blah, blah. But if Trump comes out and says We won were done, let's move on. It's going to be panicked because, look, e. I mean he's You can't certify Georgia, Apparently so you know there's a There's a path where there's seven or eight states that have to go through a lot of meticulous recount. I think this thing is back toe coin flip. I mean, Trump now has toe win Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania in order to win the presidency. If Biden wins any one of those three states he wins, he has to be a three for three in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Three for three in that well, but we're saying that May that may become ungh. Odd

. Um, so if if he loses Georgia, he loses. If he loses Pennsylvania, lose. If you lose, Michigan loses. Assuming he's already, um lost Wisconsin and, um, in Arizona. So hey, guys, Biden's coming out, But my analyst just run this analysis. If Biden wins Ann Arbor in Detroit by the same percentage is 2000 and 16, that's 420,000 Biden Incremental votes versus the 300,000 current Trump lead Just applied math and he wins Michigan Way. Feel good about where we are Way. Really, dio I'm here to tell you tonight way. Believe we're on track to win this election way new because of the unprecedented early vote in the mail and vote, there's gonna take a while. We're gonna have

to be patient until the hard work of tallying votes is finished and it ain't over until every vote is counted. Every ballot is counted, but but we're feeling good. We're feeling good about where we are. We believe one of the Nets has suggested we've already won Arizona, but we're confident about Arizona that's a turnaround way also just called it from Minnesota and we're still in the game in Georgia, although that's not what we expected. We're feeling really good about Wisconsin and Michigan on, by the way, it's gonna take time to count. The votes were gonna win Pennsylvania talking folks in Philly, Allegheny County, Scranton, and they're really encouraged by

the turnout on what they see. Look, you know, we could know the results as early as tomorrow morning, but it may take a little longer. As I've said all along, it's not my place or Donald Trump's place to declare Who's one of this election? That's the decision of the American people. But I'm optimistic about this outcome. E don't wanna thank. Every one of you came out and vote in this election. And, by the way, Chris Coons and the Democrats. Congratulations here in Delaware. Hey, John Booth. The whole team, man, you've done a great job. I'm grateful to the poll workers to our volunteers are canvassers everyone to participate in this democratic process on I'm grateful to all my supporters here in Delaware and all across the nation. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. And folks you heard me say before. Every time I walk out of

my grandpa's house up in Scranton Needle Joey, keep the faith on my grandma when she was live, you'll know Joey, spread it. Keep the faith. Guys, we're gonna win this. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Before before, before we just I just want to give a big shout out and thank you to Brad Gerstner. Um incredible investor and person and thinker. Thank you. BG for being on the third. Appreciate it. Thanks to Bill Gurley who stepped in and fill Helm youth, This has been a great first time effort. Uh, we we had I think, about 4000 of you at the peak here. And and and certainly five or 6000 over the night. This was an experiment, I think A successful one on Dove course I'm speaking about this country. America. What a successful experiment it has been to Jason. Jason, you can unclench your your nether

regions because I think we're gonna be OK. You think we're gonna be OK? It's very tight anyway. Thank you. Thank you. I'm changing my prediction to scenario three Biden President. Yeah, Let's do that as we wrap these. That's the best I've taken with Biden. I'm still sticking with Biden. Trump just tweeted that I will be making a statement tonight. A big win. So we were either in scenarios. Well, I mean, in 23 and 23 and 44 just for I don't know if the viewers remember scenario one was a Biden landslide that's clearly not happy to was, was basically, um, was was Trump pulling a big upset? That's still on the table? I'd say. Probably 49% chance right now, 40 45% chance. Uh, then you've kind of got the scenario. Three was the soft landing where Biden wins the presidency. But the Republicans take the Senate, and I think

it's probably like the 51%. And then scenario four was the shit show. That was a totally inconclusive outcome. And here we are. So I mean, the reality is I think this thing e I mean, I think it's probably at the end of the day 51 49 in favor of Biden right now, but we probably have at least three more days and maybe a bunch of court cases. This could this could be really bad. I mean, we may not know who the winner is till December, and this may require another Supreme Court case. I think we'll know within a week who won. But it's gonna be It's gonna be a white knuckle kind of week. We did. You know, I think we're gonna know tomorrow, E I guess. You know, I guess based on the electoral map, I'd say it's 51 49 in favor of Biden at the smoke A. So Sacks wants Biden to win. Uh, Friedberg? Where you at the end of this shit show? I was doing as 2020? I was looking at which island in Hawaii I wanna go to. I'm

looking at Austin and then just Thio Look at our final. Mm. Dogs are getting a little better for Trump. I wonderful. Who the hell knows things has been an incredibly of name. Feel better about the market reaction? I feel like you know, those of us who operate businesses and try and build businesses and, you know, have employees and all this stuff. I mean, I'm disappointed in San Francisco. It's a fucking shit show of the city. But I feel good about the fact that markets are taking this well. And it, you know, means businesses will continue to operate and find funding and shout out Billy and Hawaii ut ut what's your pick? And then Jake Allen. Then we're gonna bounce e have to go with the math. I think Trump Dollar 60 is pretty significant. So I have to take that direction. But I'm going by. All right, everybody. This has been a special edition of the best. Yes, Michael. Thank you. Thanks for having me. I enjoyed it. Thank you. Later E a poker table soon. Hopefully soon. Yes. Bye bye.

E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
E11: Election Night Special featuring Phil Hellmuth, Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner & more!
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