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Josh Brown on Bitcoin’s ‘Respectability Rally’ and Why We’ll See Dow 100,000 in Our Lifetime

by Nathaniel Whittemore
December 3rd 2020
00:32:40
Description

Josh Brown is the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. He is also the host of “The Halftime Report” on CNBC, author of the “Reformed Broker” blog and host of “The Comp... More

this bonanza off. I don't want to say federal assistance, but maybe central bank assistants combined with federal assistance, pushing the middle class in the upper middle class back thio whatever network they might have lost. And then you've got this whole underclass of people who aren't really being helped by any programs other than, let's call it welfare soup, kitchen like literally soup kitchens. Welcome back to the Breakdown with Me and L. W. It's a daily podcast on macro Bitcoin and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. The Breakdown is sponsored by crypto dot com. Next audio and all notes and produced and distributed by Coindesk. What's Going On, Guys? It is Wednesday, December 2nd, and today I'm joined by someone that you might know. He's the host of the halftime report on CNBC, author of the Reformed broker Blawg, host of the Compound show podcast and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. I'm talking

, of course, about Josh Brown. Josh is also the author of How I Invest My Money, a new collection of essays from financial managers that flip the switch. And instead of simply asking them for advice, ask them what they actually do And even more importantly, why, in this episode we talk about what inspired him to write that book, why we should be excited about the new generation of Robin Hood trader kids. Why the stock market has rewarded Perma bulls. And, of course, Bitcoin, which Josh labels as being right square in the middle of the quote. Respectability rally now for those who are used to these shows usually were pretty good about swearing. But Josh and I get a little fired up, so there may be a few more bombs than you're used to, but I know you're gonna enjoy it anyway. So without any further ado, let's dive in. All right, Josh, welcome to the breakdown. I'm so excited to have you here. Great to be here, Nathaniel. Thank you very much. So, Josh, I want to do a bunch of different things today. I want to talk about your recent Bitcoin piece, which I think is great

. I want to talk about some of the things going on in the markets that have happened, but the specific reason that I reached out to you now it's a conversation that I've been wanting to have is you just published a book which I thought was a really fun, interesting on kind of different books. So maybe we could talk a little bit about that first. Sure. So the the idea behind the book was that whenever you see, people like me in the media were usually giving investment advice and telling other people what they should do with their money. So the idea was to turn the tables on, um, popular investment commentators and financial advisers. Andi, just say Okay, we understand what you think everyone else should do. What do you dio? And it's not really the what that was most interesting, although that was it's the why Everyone that told us what their portfolio consisted of also explained the reasoning behind it. And you almost never see that anywhere in financial media like people that literally are professional

investors and manage money for a living explaining their own holdings and why they own what they own. So it was a lot of fun to do. We did it during the pandemic. We had complete buy in from, uh, in my mind, some of the best writers and speakers in the industry. Three only rule was there are no rules. We didn't tell anybody. You know what we wanted. Specifically Onda. We came up with the list of people we wanted, people that actually manage money for a living, like there's a lot of people. They have opinions about the markets, and that's fine. It's America is the 1st 1st Amendment, but we wanted, like people who are, like, registered and like, do this professionally because we thought that's what would make the book unique. Um is toe have actual professionals weighing in on their own asset allocation. So that's the story. And we're a best seller and we're number one in multiple categories. And, um, I think we're the top selling business book in Belgium right now, which is really exciting for May. And, uh, I'm just I'm so happy

to end the year on a positive note on DTA. Have this be the capper eso that's that's That's where I am and that's what's going on with the book. I thought that the why was that is definitely the coolest part behind all of it, and I thought it was really cool, actually, even though the small convention that you guys have of having kind of a little line drawing at the beginning of each chapter that in cancel its that So yours is a big circle that is your life with a very small piece of investment. And I thought one of the most interesting connection points with that was the idea of the way that you treat your house. I thought it was actually really, like, nice and different, especially as there's so many folks to talk about. Like houses, an asset or a house is completely not. It's just this consumption expense, and you kind of blew those two dialectics out of the water a little bit well, at the stage in life that I'm at, like, I wanna have house that I enjoy and we put a lot of money into it, and we don't expect it to, like, pay off. But we're raising our kids. There were making, like, some of the most important memories off our lives, and we're living some of the most important critical years

of our lives there. So we're not thinking about it is an investment at all, and I know I could sell it now for more than I could have last summer because everyone all of a sudden wants to live in my town coming out of Brooklyn and Manhattan. But I'm not selling it because then I have to go buy something. So we built the house the way we wanted it for us. Like we did all the renovation. I should say the way we wanted it for us, and we plan to stay. But I don't have, like an insane attachment to it, like, uh, if if things in my life change and I could move somewhere else or whatever, or I wanna move somewhere else I can. So I think I'm like that with my portfolio to I think I'm like that with every asset that I have, I try to just be like to take as much of the emotional attachment away as possible while still acknowledging that some of these things that I'm invested in do have an emotional connection for May. And it's just it's the reality. I think it's the reality that everyone grows up and and comes to realize. Yeah, I think figuring out the right line to strike

between recognizing that you're gonna have emotional biases and attachments while also trying to kind of not always act upon them is a really tough one. Were there any other common themes that you saw across the essays that made it to the book? I think one of the more interesting things that we that we learned when we got started getting back thes chapters from all the contributors is that the things that happened, the formative experiences that you have with money in your childhood and adolescence and young adulthood echo throughout the course of your life for, like years and decades to come. And that was like one of the biggest common themes was like people talking about how they're invested today and then going very far back in time to I don't want to say explain themselves, but give the reader of the context for why that allocation makes sense for them. So I think that that was really interesting, had a lot of like Children of divorce myself included, and the way that we saw money get tangled up in, You

know, the breakdown of our families and what that caused us Thio become as investors or a savers like that was a big thing. Um, my friend SRT yarn boy's parents fled, Ah, 16 year civil war in Liberia and came over here with nothing. And, you know, I think he watched his father become very important in the community of Liberian expats in America and somebody that they turned to for help and assistance. And so now he sees himself that way and with his investments. When he sees a fellow entrepreneur in his community doing something, he wants to back them with his own money. So, like, there's a lot of that kind of thing going on, Like what you saw as a kid, how it affected you and how it shaped the kind of investor you are today. And again, I don't really think you're gonna read that. Anywhere I think makes the book so unique is that there are so many of those stories. Love it. Yeah

. I mean, the last thing I guess that I'll note that I thought was really cool about this is that you turned it into ah, book drive as well. Yeah, well, so look, I I've been bitten by the philanthropy bug and knowing May Everything I do always goes toe like ridiculous extremes. So God knows what I'm gonna be doing a year from now. But this summer I just became very affected by seeing food lines and, you know, thinking about industries that, like like, you wake up one day and you work in a specific industry and you just, like, lost this cosmic coin toss that you have nothing to do with, like you happen, toe. You happen to be a manager at a restaurant chain. It's like, What did you dio? Nothing. Did you offend the gods know, right? Did you bring this on yourself? No, but that doesn't change the fact that you don't know where your family's next meal is coming from until the industry that you've devoted your career to comes back to normal. So there are, like, millions of people in

that fucking horrible situation right now. In the meanwhile, I'm on Wall Street and stocks go up every day and when stocks aren't going up, gold does. And when gold doesn't go, a Bitcoin does. And it's just like it's like this bonanza off. I don't want to say federal assistance, but maybe central bank assistants combined with federal assistance pushing the middle class and the upper middle class back Thio whatever network they might have lost. And then you've got this whole underclass of people who aren't really being helped by any programs other than, let's call it welfare soup, kitchen like, literally fucking soup kitchen. So I looked at this and it just made me like it just made me, like, radiate with empathy and just, like, be like I can't sit here and do nothing. So I've been doing stuff all year trying to move money, trying to raise money, trying to raise awareness. And then with the book signing, I was just like, Look, I'm so lucky I'm a published author in a pandemic and people are buying my book and they were asking for signed copies

. I'll tell you what make a $50 donation to my food bank that I'm supporting and I will sign is many copies as you want and we've raised. I thought we'd raised, like, five grand. We raised, like, 15,000 already, and I'm leaving it open and people keep buying books and mailing them to May and making donations and those donations going right Thio l I cares and the Harry Chapin Food Bank and I've been told it's about 89 cents a meal is the is the guideline. So we have We are literally serving like tens of thousands of meals were feeding hundreds of families every week with the money being raised. So I'm really excited about it. And I can't wait. Thio, think up. The next thing I'm gonna dio to try to help as many people as I can. I love that. I think one of the things that we noticed or I noticed very quickly when the pandemic hit and especially when lockdowns hit, is so why I live in a little town, you know, two hours north of New York City off the off the metro north. And this town is, you know, a couple 100 people and the

one restaurant that figured out how to stay open partially as a take out restaurant. All of a sudden just started making meals available for the whole town, you know, And it was a no questions asked kind of thing. It wasn't like you have to fill out some paperwork to qualify. It was just ah, good stewardship in a good neighbor thing. And they started reaching out and they fit. I mean, they're still doing it this day. They're doing it a little less frequently now, but they're feeding, you know, hundreds of people a week. And I saw a resurgence of that type of activity at every level, from kind of the smallest, most local level up through institutions that can help. And I think it's an important reminder you now you know we are. You know, we just got off the best, you know, Dow Dow Month in 33 years or something like that. Bitcoin is soaring. Uh, there's so much optimism and excitement around these vaccines, but there's still this major question of what kind of Cleves in the economic structure of society are left behind. You know, as we enter the vaccine era, what comes back but

weekend, what comes back stronger than ever and what never comes back. And I'm sure you've thought about that. I have. I think I think we're probably overstating the idea that certain things are never coming back. I usually that's bad that, but you could have things being secular, decline for like 25 years and movie theaters. They're probably an example of that, so it's not like you're never going to be in a movie theater again, and it's just like that's just not a thing that, you know, future generations are going to do as much as our generation did. I'm saying our I don't know how old you are, my generation Uh so So you know, I think there's something to be said for, like things don't just disappear overnight. They just they gradually fade away. This would be a lot of stuff that gradually fades away, and I think the pandemic has accelerated. Some of those fades, right? And then it's also accelerated a lot of adoption for things like contact, less payment, which we could talk about. But I

I think I think like when you're an investor and you're trying to make these connections and you're trying to say like, Well, ExxonMobil is down 70% and they are now gonna get really disciplined about spending and they're gonna protect their dividend and there's gonna be this huge bounce in the stock, and it's a great by that ended up being true over the last couple of weeks. But like his ExxonMobil, something that you wanna be like a long term investor in like probably not, because the thing that they dio is fading away. We're not gonna be driving around on dinosaur bones like for the rest of our lives. It's just not gonna be the way things are. So separating short term opportunity from long term secular change. Eyes not easy to dio. But I think like a talented investors should try to be doing both of those two things, like identifying what's an opportunity now versus identifying, like, what's the bigger picture? And what do we really want to focus on for the long term? Yeah

, I mean, it kind of seemed like that was actually not not to keep bring it back to the book. But that was something that was pretty consistent across a lot of these pieces with some version of that, you know, figuring out which portion of your portfolio was gonna be allocated to just your big long term sense of how markets function and where it is going to grow your wealth while also creating space for things that either you had more personal conviction around. You know what you being any of the one of the authors or just had had stronger kind of you know, different time scales they thought than the market. Yeah, because we all live our lives on different time scales, and we're gonna be using different portions of our money at different times in our life. So right now, right now, like my wife and I, our next big project is we want to be part of the year in Florida. Just we've always wanted Thio her parents air down there. My kids have friends down there. I don't like the cold. So, like, I'm not ready to do it yet. Have kids in school here in New York like I'm not. I'm not ready to move, but like, we're

starting to look like real estate. And the portion of our money that we have invested for that project is different than the money that we have put away for things that we know we're gonna have to pay for in the next year or two. So, like, how? How how do you invest the money? That's five year plus versus how do you invest the money that you're using within the next two or three years? So this applies to everybody because it doesn't have to be about a second home or a vacation you have. You have family members that you're gonna help with college. You have, like so we all have Thio come up with what money is being used for. What? What's a reasonable rate of return to expect on that money? What's a reasonable rate of risk that we can deal with on the way to get there? And are there mismatches between how much risk we're taking versus when we'll need the money? And if there are, how do we fix that? So this is what financial advisors do for people, and I'm oversimplifying it because there's a lot of other stuff in their like insurance, like taxes, like

estate planning. But, um, we're doing this for households that you know have half a million dollars and have $30 million and everyone in between. And, you know, each household requires different levels off. Um, complexity, obviously. But the big idea is like if you focus on those things, you get those things right. All the other stuff takes care of itself. What e. T. F to buy is not gonna be the difference maker in someone's life. It's getting those big things right first and then coming up with the portfolio that satisfies those objectives. This episode is brought to you by crypto dot com, the crypto super app that lets you buy, earn and spend crypto all in one place and earn up to 8.5% per year on your Bitcoin. Download the crypto dot com app now to see the interest rates you could be earning on BTC and more than 20 other coins. Once in the APP, you can apply for the crypto dot com metal card, which pays you up to 8% cash

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. Comes with instant node monitoring and multi level protection for your validator keys. Five Minutes is all it takes to get started staking on all nodes dot com, the platform preferred by people who make a difference. So visit all nodes dot com and use the promo code Coindesk three to get started for free today, there's obviously been kind of a rise of the sort of David a trader types right during the pandemic as well, and a lot of the sort of the Robin Hood stock market type thing that tick tock, advisors and all this sort of stuff. How do you see that? Is there a way to make that a positive force where people's excitement about the stock market and could be validated, but also we can kind of not just be day traders every day or something like that. You know, it's totally Listen, I like it. E mean, it's all stupid, but that doesn't matter. My generation got involved with the market in the late 19 nineties. It was just a stupid we weren't like we weren't like walking around like Warren Buffett. We were

doing the same stupid shit. There were TV commercials where Ana Kournikova was picking stocks and trading them on, you know, td waterhouse dot com like it was the same. And Jackie Chan be he has, like, a laptop, and he's being assailed by like, uh, there's a real commercial. You could look at this up on Google like Jackie Chan, like having like a karate fight or kung Fu fight with like assailants. But he's in the middle of doing an online trade, so he, like, throws the laptop up in the air and, like, punches a bad guy in the face and then like those around house like a spin kick, and they show his toe hit enter so he could get the trade in. And, you know, he was buying the stupidest shit you could think of like a O l or whatever, or like like Oh, so you know, But But, like that shack was doing online trading commercials. So it's not different. This isn't better or worse than every generation is dopey when they come into the market on Mass

at all time highs like that. So it's totally cool on guy like it. And I think a lot of today's you know, day traders, Robin Hood, kids, whatever you wanna call them like they're gonna start reading stuff and, like, become really good as investors. Not all but many will realize. Oh, I get it. No, you don't make 30% a month in real life. This was just this very specific moment in time where all these cloud stocks exploded and the market was down 30%. And I just This was once in a lifetime. Now I understand what I'm really shooting for is like 789% a year after inflation, and that's how you win, Okay? And then they'll read Peter Bernstein and learn about risk. And then they'll read Nick Murray and learn about why Stocks versus Bonds. And then they'll read Ben Carlson about asset allocation like they'll they'll have this awakening, they'll discover the real shit. I'll start reading Abnormal returns, blogged. Start reading

my stuff, listening to Michael in bed, you know, like that will happen for probably the smartest 10 or 20% off this generation, and they'll be just fine. And if this was the moment that awakened their interest in investing and they started off trading options or whatever, there's nothing wrong with that. I totally endorse it. Yeah, I agree. And I think it's a great point to that. You know, we're in such an interesting, flourishing moment for financial, economic, business media, where people can start podcasts and grow them. There's YouTube channels that are legitimate and interesting. There's blog's everyone has. I mean, you have, I think, probably like you have to be up there on the greatest diversity of media assets around yourself. A this point I mean, you got block video TV, you know, the full the full Monty. But like, yo, listen, I'm I'm verified on tick tock. Did you know that I'm really serious? I'm a verified tick tock account. Now, there you go. I'm 43 year old ass. You like that? You like me now? Breakdown Oh

my God. You know, it's so funny to I I have I have clients that I advise that I'm watching the ticktock stuff and I'm like, You know, it's It's mostly kind of like, silly the financial side of it, but it's still really small you don't have like like there's there's infiltration opportunity. You know eso I'm not dance. I'm not dancing on their e Think the perspective that I bring I'm owning my my old nous. Yeah, not like not on there. Like, hey, fellow kids, I'm like, Look, man, from the fucking old school, let me tell you allow this shit you're hearing about blank. Here's what you really need to know. Here's some perspective from somebody that's been around for a minute, and that's what I'm doing. And the response is kind of cool, like thousands of people are following it. And I'm not on there every day, but like when something occurs to May and I know the kids, we're hearing a lot of misinformation on there, you know, like I was joking around someone like, What's what's financed Ticktock. Like I'm like, Well, tic tac is where 16 year olds go to get financial advice from 19

year olds s. But whatever it z all good, like, can't fault people as long as they're not like outright scams can't fall people for being on their expressing themselves and their newfound love of investing and trading, even if everything they say isn't right. So what, like, who among us knew what the fuck they were talking about when they were 22 years old? Nobody. Nobody really knows, so it's all good. Couldn't agree more. Okay, a couple more things for you before I let you get off into your busy, busy life of advising and content creating, Um, so we are in the midst of a big Bitcoin rally on. Do you actually had a name for you? Called it the respectability rally. Give me your kind of your your short, short version of that piece. Yes. So I don't even really think that what I'm saying is like, out of consensus or whatever. I feel like everyone kind of feels that way. Which is that during the first Bitcoin rally, everyone was like embarrassing

themselves. There were all these I CEOs and like people using terminology they heard that morning for the first time as though they were like experts, you know, for for 100 years on these topics. And there a lot of people doing reckless shit and million dollar price targets. And it was all, uh, the way Ben Carlson on his podcast phrase that it was like watching somebody drink for the first time in their life, right? But, like everyone gots really sober over the last couple of years, took a second look and now Bitcoin guys air like sipping cognac. And it's like much It's much eso I think. Ben Ben Carlson phrases perfectly an animal spirits. It's like a much more respectable version on. People don't seem to be quite a drunk, at least not yet. Talked to me at 25,000, we'll say. But I'm look, I own some Bitcoins. I've made some private investments in companies that are building Bitcoin infrastructure like I'm I'm down. I'm

cool. I'm not like a disruption hippie like, you know, running around China, screaming about censored money, but like I totally get it, I understand it, and I'm I'm in. So hoping for the best. Yeah, I think it's interesting, I thought, for anyone who hasn't read that yet. I'll link it. It's because you go through 55 different pieces, which are I think it's your point. Uh, you know, perhaps consensus narratives around it, but still, it's valuable to see them all together. And I think, you know, one of the ones that's interesting is this idea of gold and silver not working or this, uh, this this kind of question. I mean, I feel like one of the things that shifted a little bit is, as people are talking about digital gold now they're like, Maybe that digital pieces actually really valuable, and it adds something else more than just being a different representation of gold or something like that. I don't really have a strong opinion on this. I don't think it's quite the same as gold, but I understand the use case being very similar to the way gold is used. And the portability, I think, is really the that differentiator. So

it's It's like gold, but you can move it really easily like that to me. I I definitely buy into that. That argument, which is not the same thing, is saying like it's gonna replace gold. Um, but so And by the way, gold is like within a few dollars off all time record highs. It's like it's not like gold is like down big. It's It's in the neighborhood. I know it just broke its 200 day moving average this week, and so that's caused a lot of hand wringing. But gold could gold could make a new high in, like, three days like it really wouldn't take much. So I don't I don't think people should count either out. And I think both to some extent are reacting to the fall in the dollar and people just saying they want something different to do with cash. That gets me to maybe my my kind of final question, which is obviously, we've seen, you know, recent highs in the markets you've talked about, Ah, kind of a potential melt up going into December. I mean, what's your take on where markets are? Is it just, Ah, big

sigh? As vaccines seem to get closer and this transition looks like it's actually happening? I don't know. I could picture a scenario where the vaccine happens. We have a really amazing explosion of economic activity and then, like stocks start worrying about six months later and and sell off like I could picture anything happening. But just for your audience, who maybe doesn't know me that well, should understand that I've been telling people to stay fully invested in the market, like for 11 years and mocking, you know, people who have been trying to scare them for attention or for money or whatever. Like I'm a ball and I'm 43 I'm pretty sure I'm gonna see down 100,000 in my lifetime. And that might sound extreme. You should know that's really Onley compound in that, like 7% for a few decades. Like it's, it's extremely in line with the historical average annual return of stocks going back to the beginning of time. So that's what I'm thinking about

. And now the thing that that accompanies down 100,000 is $9 cups of coffee. So I mean that. But that's necessitates the need to invest. So if you're one of these assholes, that's like, Oh, I just read about, um, Janet Yellen said. This or or Bernanke said that. And so I'm I disagree with that government policy, so I'm I'm going to cash like if if that's what you're doing. For the last 12 years, you have just had the biggest opportunity cost fail in the history of mankind because the gains that we've seen, you can't get them again. You can't have it back. You can't. You're not gonna see Douse 6000, which was literally 2009 11 years ago. You're not getting that back. So now it's at Dow 30,000. You still don't like government policies or whatever. Like, you know, keep your politics and your investing separate, I think is like my big message to people and

temper your views of the last article you read. Don't have that be the thing that guides what you're going to do in terms of investing your portfolio? Because it's almost always a disaster. So I've been spreading that message for 10 or 11 years now, on the reformed broker dot com, like a lot of people have been listening. Thank God it's enabled me to build a big business and build a big following. And so, like, that's really my My goal is to try to share this information with the world and help people make good decisions. Love it. Well, let me leave you. I guess it's just one question. What's your wackiest most off kilter or just unexpected prediction for next year? Wow, I wish I had some time to think about that. I would have come up with something clever. I didn't give it to you earlier because I didn't know that I was gonna ask it. So I apologize there enough. What's the wackiest thing that could happen? I think like I think I I own the stock. So full disclosure, I think like PayPal could end up. Maybe not next year. I

think PayPal could end up like being the most valuable financial company in America and could end up in the Dow. So, I mean, it's it's already 200 plus billion dollar market cap, and J. P. Morgan is like 300 something billion. Like, I wouldn't be surprised to see PayPal be bigger than every bank. Um, and maybe most of the banks put together and possibly be, like, a doubt 30 stocks someday. I know that sounds crazy, but the crazier things have happened. So that's something that that I'm and that I think ties into the Bitcoin story. Because if Bitcoin, if PayPal and square are successful in turning Bitcoin into a consumer consumption purchased technology and not just the thing that we all nerd out about in markets but like people using Bitcoin on these APS to do routine transactions, If they really have the ability to do that with their APS, they're gonna be much more valuable companies than they are today. And they're gonna be way ahead

of many, many financial institutions who aren't even thinking that way yet. So that would be my big, I guess. My big wacky prediction for the breakdown audience love it. All right, well, we'll have to have you back. Thio check in on that next year. Awesome. Alright, thanks for having me thief thing that I'd like to come back to. Reflecting on that conversation is this idea of building funnels for people toe learn. And Josh and I were talking about this in the context of the Robin Hood traders, but I think it applies to Bitcoin as well. They're going to be a huge number of people that come in the door during the next bull run strictly because of price because of foam. Oh, because they've seen some friend make a bunch of money for it. It matters hugely what we do when they actually get here. Where do we channel them toe learn? How do we help them fall down the right rabbit holes? How do we help them go as far as they want to in terms of understanding the implications of these new systems that are being designed, I hope this show could be a part of that. But I'm also incredibly

encouraged with just how much incredible density of content and thinking there is in this space and in the broader financial space as well, emerging to help people navigate and make their own decisions and really do their own research in a way that is so intrinsic to the space that we're all a part of. So I appreciate you being on this journey with me. If you like this show, please go rate and review it. It helps new people find the show, which I really, really appreciate, of course, so, until tomorrow, be safe and take care of each other piece

Josh Brown on Bitcoin’s ‘Respectability Rally’ and Why We’ll See Dow 100,000 in Our Lifetime
Josh Brown on Bitcoin’s ‘Respectability Rally’ and Why We’ll See Dow 100,000 in Our Lifetime
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